What will Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler say on Thursday morning when he delivers his latest monetary policy statement?

With the US election race so tight we don't even know what kind of world we will be waking up to on Thursday morning.

This is supposed to be my regular preview for this week's Reserve Bank interest rate decision.

READ MORE:Trump slump: What the US election means for NZ


Another official cash rate cut, to 1.75 per cent, seems a near certainty. But it's priced in and seems insignificant in comparison to the havoc Donald Trump could be about to cause the global economy.

The best laid monetary policy plans of central bank's everywhere could go out the window as markets crash and America braces itself for four years of social and economic turmoil and as the world prepares for a more volatile and aggressive American foreign policy.

So, it could be worse, I could be trying to pre-write that Monetary Policy Statement which Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler must deliver just as US markets are closing on their first session after the election.

What can he say if Trump wins?

A large portion of his words will focus on New Zealand's economic current status. And they will be very bullish.

The data looks good - GDP, jobs growth, business confidence, tourism and export earnings - and even dairy is on the rebound.

Yes, we need some more inflation - particularly some wage growth.

And political criticisms about the way immigration is flattering those figures are valid.

New Zealand's economy is getting bigger, not more productive.

Despite that, the top line data presents a picture of a benign economy where it is good to do business and where there is opportunity to create wealth.

We are well placed to push on in the right direction if we make good political choices.

The bottom line is that in the absence of any major "external shock" to the global economy, this could be the last rate cut for New Zealand in the current cycle.

While they'd likely stay low for some time, odds on the Reserve Bank making another cut in February have been receding in recent weeks.

There is cause for hope that we are coming towards the end of a fiendishly complex period for monetary policy.

US Election: Should investors be worried?

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Trump risk: Markets are on edge but should investors panic ahead of next week’s US election? Liam Dann talks to Pie Funds’ Mike Taylor.

Normal service has been threatening to resume, or at least the pathway to normal service has become clearer.

The US Federal Reserve is on track to raise rates again in December and some inflation is expected to creep back into the global economy as oil prices recover.

President Donald Trump will muddy that picture in ways that we have no precedent for predicting.

The variables are enormous. Most of his policies are ill defined and unrealistic. To what extent would he stick to them? To what extent could he actually enact them? What else might he do if has power?

Many economists have concluded his economic policy is inflationary - his promises add up to a budget blowout.

As Forbes magazine (not famous for leftist bias) noted in June: "He's put forward a tax package that experts have found would cost US$9.5 trillion and hand nearly all of the benefits to the wealthiest."

He's also effectively promised to start a global trade war.

Implementing these policies is not a given in a Congress where he may not have the backing of many old school free-market Republicans.

But economists see them translating to faster rate rises from the US Fed and therefore potentially a stronger US dollar.

Markets are already biased towards a sell off on the prospect of rising rates. The NZX-50 is in correction, down more than 10pc.


In New Zealand that could mean we also get a higher long run interest rate track with the bonus of a weaker currency to help exports.

Exporters would need that as Trump's threat to global free trade is widely seen as his biggest downside to New Zealand's economy.

But before we get to all of that we'd have to get through the next week. The size of the market crash a Trump victory could cause is very worrying in itself.

Markets are already biased towards a sell off on the prospect of rising rates. The NZX-50 is in correction, down more than 10 per cent.

In the US, falls have been smaller yet markets have been down for nine straight days - the longest losing streak since 1980.

A major meltdown and a slower global growth outlook would necessitate more emergency measures - which typically involve lowering rates or at least putting rises on hold. So that's two different contradictory directions for central banks. The impact may be like to waves crashing head on - pure turbulence.

The trouble with Donald Trump as a wild card candidate is that the best case scenario for the world is that he is ineffectual.

Having a measurably negative impact on the American and global economy is only the mid-case scenario.

The worst case with Trump is violence - social unrest and blood on the streets of America.

Or worse, heightened global tension and war.

That's why all bets are off this week.