NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Companies

Mark Lister: Next Govt could face a rougher ride

By Mark Lister
NZ Herald·
2 Oct, 2017 04:00 PM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Economic trends are making for uncomfortable headlines for policymakers. Photo / 123RF

Economic trends are making for uncomfortable headlines for policymakers. Photo / 123RF

Opinion

This month we should find out what sort of Government we're in for over the next three years. Someone is going to come out on the wrong side of the negotiations, and it may not be a terrible battle to lose.

The economy has been running hot over the past few years, but this might be coming to an end, regardless of potential policy change.

Migration has had a significant influence in recent years, with population growth running at the highest levels since the 1960s, boosting economic activity.

Early signs are emerging this may have peaked, such as a pickup in the number of non-residents leaving in the past few months. If this trend continues, it could dent the domestic growth story heading into 2018.

Slowing house-price inflation is another factor. Many have put recent softness down to election uncertainty but I don't buy that entirely.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

In July, when Labour (under Andrew Little) was polling below 25 per cent, REINZ figures revealed a 31 per cent decline in sales volumes in Auckland. In addition, annual house price inflation in our biggest city had fallen into negative territory. The strong housing market has been another big economic driver in recent years, boosting spending, confidence and activity for many sectors. A period of flat prices would definitely take a little more wind out of our sails.

Interest rates have been falling for just about the entire time National has been in power, which is always a crowd pleaser. Last year mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels we've seen in more than 50 years.

Since then, they've been drifting higher, and I'd be surprised if that doesn't continue. Despite an OCR that's going nowhere, central banks around the world are trying to reverse the economic life support of the past few years. That'll put upward pressure on global interest rates, and New Zealand won't be immune.

Tourism and construction also look close to their respective peaks, so it's hard to see those sectors adding much more to the growth picture during the next three years.

None of these issues is a show-stopper on its own, but combined they could have an impact.

Discover more

Tourism

Alipay likely to boost Chinese tourism

29 Sep 09:03 PM
Business

From London to NY in 30 minutes?

01 Oct 04:00 PM
Airlines

Trump's man in NZ: Vetted tourists welcome

02 Oct 03:41 AM
Opinion

Mark Lister: Wall St too quiet for comfort

26 Nov 01:19 AM

A few less people, sluggish house prices and a small but steady rise in borrowing costs could quite easily dent our outlook.

If it all pans out that way, the tax take could end up a little lower than expected, making the government books look less rosy. We'd see some heat come out of the NZ dollar, adding to price pressures on things like fuel.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It all makes for uncomfortable headlines for policymakers. Rightly or wrongly, people blame the Government for the state of the economy, for their mortgage rates or petrol costs going up, or their house price slipping back a little.

It's not all bad news. Dairy prices are almost 70 per cent higher than 18 months ago, a weaker currency would boost the exporter sector, and low government debt leaves room for fiscal stimulus if necessary. Besides, a moderating housing market is a good thing. But for a new (or re-elected) Government, that all means tough questions. Who wants to preside over an economic slowdown, rising interest rates, a housing market that's run out of puff and missing your surplus forecasts?

• Mark Lister is head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. This column is general in nature and should not be regarded as specific investment advice.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Companies

Premium
Tourism

'Nothing was going to stop me': Pioneer who built ski resort from scratch sells up

09 May 07:00 AM
Lifestyle

Rice to the occasion: How a Queenstown brewery snagged gold at Tokyo Sake Challenge

09 May 04:15 AM
Premium
Tourism

Uber adds new ride option for Kiwis in Asia-Pacific first

09 May 02:00 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Companies

Premium
'Nothing was going to stop me': Pioneer who built ski resort from scratch sells up

'Nothing was going to stop me': Pioneer who built ski resort from scratch sells up

09 May 07:00 AM

Peter Foote started building Mt Dobson Ski Area with a $2000 bulldozer.

Rice to the occasion: How a Queenstown brewery snagged gold at Tokyo Sake Challenge

Rice to the occasion: How a Queenstown brewery snagged gold at Tokyo Sake Challenge

09 May 04:15 AM
Premium
Uber adds new ride option for Kiwis in Asia-Pacific first

Uber adds new ride option for Kiwis in Asia-Pacific first

09 May 02:00 AM
Premium
Why Bremworth is returning to synthetic carpets after three years

Why Bremworth is returning to synthetic carpets after three years

09 May 12:56 AM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP