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Home / Business / Economy

Jarden Brief: Inflation to rise faster than expected

NZ Herald
8 Mar, 2022 07:49 PM7 mins to read

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Kiwis face more pain in the grocery aisle. Photo / Getty Images

Kiwis face more pain in the grocery aisle. Photo / Getty Images

Keeping you up to date with the latest market moves, in association with Investment firm Jarden

New Zealand

The NZX 50 continued its decline yesterday, closing 1.4 per cent lower at 11,744.95 points.

Real estate investment companies Argosy Property and Kiwi Property Group led the top movers, both increasing 1.4 per cent yesterday. Stride Property Group closed out the top performers, up 0.5 per cent.

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Skellerup Holdings was yesterday's largest laggard, down 6.6 per cent. This is the lowest share price since September 2021.

Air New Zealand fell 6.5 per cent, this could potentially be due to rising oil prices and the recent strike notice from cabin crew leaders following a stall in wage negotiations for cabin crew returning from redundancy. While it has been reported the strike would not affect travellers, it could impact Air New Zealand's ability to train staff as they rebuild their international network.

Heartland Group Holdings closed out the bottom movers (-5.5 per cent).

ANZ economists predict prices will rise more aggressively than expected, seeing consumer inflation peak at 7.4 per cent in the June quarter, in the current climate of commodity price pressure. This is 0.8 per cent above the RBNZ's forecasted peak in the March quarter. The ANZ economists believe this will drive the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee to hike the OCR (Official Cash Rate) by 50 points in April and May, taking the OCR to 2.0 per cent. It is also warned that house prices will fall up to 10.0 per cent this year.

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Yesterday the Commerce Commission published its final report into New Zealand's $22 billion supermarket industry. Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark has committed to encourage competition in the sector. The report recommended a series of changes but did not end up recommending the structural changes that had been previously contemplated.

After yesterday's high, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to US 0.68 cents, roughly a 1 cent decrease.

International                                                                                          
US

The major U.S indices were all down at the time of writing. The S&P 500 was down 0.4 per cent, the NASDAQ dropped 0.3 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2 per cent.

There were mixed results for U.S sectors but the biggest change came from energy which continues its strong run, up 4.3 per cent. Industrials and materials also increased 0.4 and 0.2 per cent respectively. Conversely, consumer staples (-1.8 per cent), health (-1.5 per cent) and utilities (-1.0 per cent) were all down at the time of writing. Energy is now up over 38 per cent from the start of the year.

The largest U.S gain of the day was solar and battery power-focused Enphase Energy Inc, up 2.0 per cent at the time of writing. In line with many renewable energy companies, Enphase Energy may be seeing a jump in share price due to energy supply pressure applied from the invasion of Ukraine alongside broader initiatives for environmentally-friendly power generation.

Following on from the energy trend, the next biggest increase was for Solaredge Technologies Inc, which was up 9.2 per cent at the time of writing.

Valero Energy Inc experienced an increase of 9.0 per cent. While the previous two companies are solar-based, Valero Energy is a manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products.

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The two biggest U.S gains from yesterday, Schlumberger N.V. (+8.6 per cent) and Halliburton Company (+7.3 per cent), were having an even stronger day at the time of writing, increasing 8.7 and 7.7 per cent respectively.

Surgical system manufacturer Intuitive Surgical Inc had the biggest decline today, falling 7.3 per cent. At the time of writing, there was no material on why the stock price fell.

The next largest decline came from insurance agency Brown & Brown, who declined 6.9 per cent. This follows the news that Brown & Brown will pay US$1.96 billion for consolidator Global Risk Partners.

Medical device company Dexcom Inc was the last largest drop of the day, falling 6.6 per cent. Dexcom's decline may be linked to the downward trend for health-based companies. 
 
Rest of the World

For the second day in a row all Asian indices were in the red. The Shanghai Composite was down 2.4 per cent, Nikkei dropped 1.7 per cent and the Hang Seng fell 1.4 per cent.

Conversely, some European indices scraped through in the green. The FTSE and DAX were up 0.1 and 0.3 per cent respectively. The only drop from the European markets was the CAC, which fell 0.3 per cent.

Major companies are continuing to suspend operations in Russia, with the most recent being Netflix, PayPal, Adobe and Ferrari S.p.A.

Commodities

The U.S 10-year treasury rate rose up 10 basis points to 1.854 per cent. This brings the rate back in line with last week's levels.

Oil increased another 7.8 per cent to US$128.67 per barrel at the time of writing.

Most metals ended in the green today with gold, silver and platinum increasing 3.5, 6.0 and 5.5 per cent respectively. Platinum is now 23.0 per cent up from the start of the year, the biggest increase of the three metals.

There were big movements in gas with Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) gas up 6.3 per cent while natural gas dropped down 4.2 per cent.

The cryptocurrency market fell another 1.4 per cent from yesterday's drop of 1.0 per cent. Bitcoin dipped 0.8 per cent and Ethereum declined 1.6 per cent. 
 
Australia

ASX 200 continued its Monday decline dropping 0.8 per cent to 6,980.30 yesterday. The index has lost 1.6 per cent over the past five days and sits 5.0 per cent above its 52-week low.

Sector performance was mixed with seven of 11 sectors finishing in the red. Health care (+1.9 per cent) and consumer staples (+1.7 per cent) were the top performers. On the other hand, energy (-3.6 per cent) and materials (-3.3 per cent) declined after their increase at the start to the week.

Gold producer and explorer St Barbara gained 12.7 per cent. The Australian Financial Review is reporting speculation that it could be a takeover target. Biotechnology companies Imugene (+4.4 per cent) and Mesoblast (+4.0 per cent) made up some ground following declines on Monday.

Nickel Mines underperformed the most yesterday, dropping 10.6 per cent. Nickel prices have shot up recently in line with other global commodities. Nickel Mines' performance yesterday could partly be a revision of some of the previous gains associated with this underlying price increase.

Steel manufacturer BlueScope decreased 8.8 per cent after announcing yesterday that 380,000 securities were bought back on the previous day. Battery metals exploration and development company Liontown Resources rounded out the bottom movers with a decline of 7.9 per cent.

Atlas Arteria, operator and developer of toll roads, declined 0.3 per cent after an announcement that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group became a substantial holder.

Financial services company AMP increased 1.1 per cent after releasing its 2021 annual report, which showed underlying net profit after tax was up 53 per cent from 2020.

• For more information on the latest market moves, get in touch with Jarden.

Disclaimer: The Jarden Brief is provided for general information purposes only. It reflects views and research available at the time of publication, using external sources, systems and other data and information we believe to be accurate, complete and reliable at the time of preparation. We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, correctness and completeness of that information, and will not be liable or responsible for any error or omission. The Jarden Brief is not to be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decision. Please seek specific investment advice before making any investment decision. Jarden Securities Limited is an NZX Firm. A financial advice disclosure statement is available free of charge at https://www.jarden.co.nz/our-services/wealth-management/financial-advice-provider-disclosure-statement/ Full disclaimer available at: https://www.jarden.co.nz/wealth-sales-and-research-disclaimer

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