House prices tumble almost everywhere, Auckland and Wellington property prices take big hits

It’s a home buyers’ bonanza but a grim time for sellers with house prices falling in almost every region and taking an especially big tumble in two major cities.

New Real Estate Institute data showed sales plummeted 39 per cent year-on-year, and Auckland house prices fell 18 per cent to a median $1.05 million.

The median sale price has decreased nationally over the year by 12.2 per cent to $790,000.

But REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said the pace of the decline was slowing and the market had settled at its new pace.

“With interest rates rising and banks stress testing at 8.1-8.5 per cent, buyers’ ability to secure finance and service a mortgage remains a key driver to buyers taking their time.”

It was now taking a median 40 days to sell homes, compared to just 29 in December 2021.

Regional median house prices decreased nationwide except for Northland, which had an increase of 3.3 per cent, and Taranaki, up 5.1 per cent from a year before.

The median price in Wellington last month was $790,000, down 20.2 per cent.

And the Canterbury median price was $655,000, with a smaller year-on-year decline of 3.7 per cent.

REINZ statistics for last month showed only 1,327 houses were sold in Auckland, down 45.1 per cent from December 2021.

“We usually see a slowing of activity as we head into the festive season, and we are comparing this December to one that was right at the peak of the pandemic market,” Baird added.

“Buyer caution is evident in the drop in count of sales, down 23.6 per cent month-on-month and down 39 per cent annually from December 2021.”

She said comparing this activity to the long-term trend, the current market was weak.

“This is leaving a lot of choice for buyers with a 55.3 per cent increase in inventory, now sitting at 26,057 properties.”

Baird said for some buyers, now is a great time to be in the market.

“If you can make the finances work, this is a good time to be a buyer. More stock, less competition and prices continuing to ease, will allow those who can get all the ducks in a row to buy well.”

Big banks: House price recovery unlikely this year

Kiwibank economists said prices would probably keep falling, due to the slowing economy and a large chunk of mortgages rolling onto higher fixed rates.

“We still see house price falls trough in annual terms at -15 per cent in the current quarter. And house prices will continue to fall beyond the current quarter, but just at a slower pace.”

Kiwibank forecast a recovery in the market was “a long way off” and perhaps not until next year.

“However, on the demand side net migration is turning around quickly and will see population growth pick up.”

ANZ suggested New Zealand was two-thirds of the way through the downturn.

“Prices are now around 15 per cent below their November 2021 peak,” ANZ economists said.

“We maintain our forecast for a peak-to-trough decline of 22 per cent.”

And Westpac said fixed-term mortgage rates rose sharply over the past year, and leapt again in December.

“That followed the Reserve Bank’s jumbo-sized 75 basis point increase in the official cash rate (OCR) and its signal of a much higher level of the OCR in the years to come,” Westpac economists said today.

“With financial markets now turning their attention to the prospects of recession and OCR cuts at some point in the future, we think that term mortgage rates have now peaked or are close to it.”

But increases in borrowing rates to date will take some time to work their way through the housing market, Westpac added.

“We’re still seeing a drop-off in new listings, as property owners choose to hold back rather than sell at a loss. That tends to slow the process of finding the new equilibrium price level, and suggests that we’ll see further falls in sale prices over the coming months.”