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Home / Business

Employment confidence slumps to 2020 post-Covid lockdown lows

Cameron Smith
By Cameron Smith
Online Business Editor·NZ Herald·
24 Mar, 2025 09:50 PM3 mins to read

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Employment confidence has fallen to the lowest levels since New Zealand came out of lockdown in early 2020 as jobs remain hard to find. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Employment confidence has fallen to the lowest levels since New Zealand came out of lockdown in early 2020 as jobs remain hard to find. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Employment confidence has fallen to its lowest level since September 2020 following the first Covid-19 lockdown, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index.

The index fell by 3.3 points to 88.3 in the March quarter.

Westpac said the index shows that labour market conditions remain very subdued in the early part of 2025.

“While job availability remains soft, this measure is still broadly in line with the current unemployment rate of 5.1%,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.

“This supports our view that the rate of unemployment is nearing its peak for this cycle.”

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Despite the weaker overall result, survey results differed substantially across the country with only four out of 11 regions recording a fall in confidence.

“However, one of these four was Auckland, which dominated the national average,” Gordon said.

Much of the variation across the regions came from people’s reported earnings growth, Westpac said.

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There were some strong gains in farming-intensive regions such as Waikato, Taranaki, and Southland.

“A record high farmgate milk price for this season, and improving export prices for beef and lamb are providing a boost to incomes in these regions,” Gordon said.

Westpac was expecting a payment of $10.30 per kilo of milk solids.

Perceptions about the availability of jobs were down across most regions, according to the index.

“This measure had picked up a little in the December quarter, but has since given back those gains,” Gordon said.

Imogen Rendall, market research director of McDermott Miller Limited, said confidence amongst employees working in both the public and private sectors remained subdued in the March quarter.

“Both private and public sector employees have taken a particularly pessimistic view on the current availability of jobs, with around six in 10 saying that jobs are currently hard to get,” she said.

For employees in the private sector, confidence dropped 4.7 points to 87.9 – a drop of 20.8 points compared with the same period last year.

For those working in the public sector, confidence picked up slightly by 1.4 points to 89.2, but is down by 16.5 points from a year ago.

While New Zealand’s economy bounced out of the worst (non-Covid) recession since 1991 with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the outlook for many households remains dampened.

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Last week the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell eight points to 89.2 in the March quarter.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said large increases in the cost of essentials like food and local council rates meant an ongoing squeeze on households’ spending power.

“It’s no surprise that many households still feel like they’re going backwards,” he said.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said New Zealand still had a way to go to where the Government wanted it to be.

“We know many families and businesses are still suffering the after-effects of high inflation and interest rates…

“... but with economic forecasters predicting further growth in the quarters ahead things are looking up.”

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Cameron Smith is an Auckland-based journalist with the Herald business team. He joined the Herald in 2015 and has covered business and sports. He reports on topics including retail, small business, the workplace and macroeconomics.

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