Website of the YearEDITORIAL:
The housing market is running hot again and it is being led by a surge in investors.
That's raised the possibility that the Reserve Bank will look to re-impose loan to value ratio restrictions on banks - most likely for investors.
Even former PM John Key - who presided over one of the biggest house price booms this country has seen - is now warning that low interest rates risk creating an asset bubble.
But there is little chance of the Reserve Bank pulling back on monetary stimulus right now.
While it is understandable that those with concerns about inequality (and those looking to get on the property ladder) might not see it, the Reserve Bank has a more pressing issue to deal with this year.
The pandemic shock to both the local and global economy is still a bigger risk than an asset bubble.
Regardless of that trade-off, the Reserve Bank hasn't dropped interest rates to record lows with the aim of boost house prices.
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Advertise with NZME.It has done it save the economy.
It's absolute focus has been on keeping cash flowing, preventing the economy from stalling - and in doing so - protecting jobs.
With Covid-19 contained in this country and the economy ticking over on strong exports and domestic spending, it is all to easy to forget the how serious this crisis still is.
But with many people feeling financially secure and returns on banks deposits almost non-existent, there has been a surge of interest in the investment property market.
ASB economists have reported that latest data shows "high" loan LVR lending accounts for about 18 per cent of growth in new lending (in the three months since lockdown).
"What is interesting," writes ASB senior economist Mike Jones, "is that the segment experiencing by far the largest growth in high-LVR lending, relative to the same period last year, is investors."
ASB has now joined KiwiBank economists in predicting that we will see Loan to Value Ratio restrictions put back in place "in May, if not before.".
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr this week dropped a strong hint yet that the he and his team are considering doing just that.
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Advertise with NZME.Speaking at an INFINZ conference on Wednesday he said the RBNZ would have concerns about financial stability when it saw that house prices rises were being driven by very highly leveraged loans and investors rather than households.
"We are seeing early signs of both of those," he said.
Orr said the LVR tool was still available and it could put it back on if needed and it was looking at if it was needed right now.
In fact when they were removed in April it was for an initial 12-month period.
Orr's often stated philosophy of taking "the path of least regrets" has him near committed to further monetary policy easing.
He and his team of senior economists are firm in their belief that it easier to slow an over heating economy than it is to kickstart one that has stalled.
That's a clear and solid foundation for basing its policy.
But with over-heated house prices proving to te a potential flaw in the formula, the return of LVRs looks increasingly likely.
