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Home / Business / Economy

Net inflow hits record at 43,500

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
19 Sep, 2014 05:00 PM2 mins to read

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The net inflow of migrants hit a record 43,500 in the year ended August, boosting the population by nearly 1 per cent.

Arrivals reached a new high of 103,900, up 15 per cent from the August 2013 year, while departures at 60,400 were down 22 per cent.

The net gain of 43,500, which includes 4700 last month, is 1000 more than the previous annual peak in May 2003 and is nearly four times the average gain of 11,700 over the past 20 years.

The increase of 13,500 in arrivals in the past year included 4900 more from Australia (including 3600 New Zealanders) and 3100 more from India (explained by a 3200 increase in people on student visas).

Departures to Australia fell 15,100 to 29,000, the lowest for 14 years.

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The net loss of 6500 people to Australia in the past year is down from 27,300 the year before and the smallest annual loss since the year ended January 1995.

ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown said recent Australian labour market data had been mixed, suggesting a change in transtasman migration patterns might happen more slowly than previously anticipated.

Net immigration boosts both the demand and the supply sides of the economy. The traditional view is that it is initially a source of upward pressure on house price inflation.

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But the Reserve Bank in its September monetary policy statement takes the view that net immigration is having a more muted and more lagged effect on house prices than in previous cycles.

Research the bank has undertaken suggests reductions in departures boost housing demand by less than increases in arrivals.

"While arrivals have picked up in recent months, the larger part played early in the migration cycle by reduced departures may still be having some effect," it said.

"Further, a large share of the increased arrivals comprises younger working-aged people and people on temporary work visas. These groups may demand less housing than permanent arrivals or families."

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