Editorial: Get used to the era of rising prices... and higher interest rates

A trolley of groceries at Countdown Supermarket in Quay St. Photo / Sylvie Whinray, File

Editorial

EDITORIAL

New Zealanders should brace themselves for an extended period of rising prices with the fight against inflation unlikely to be won anytime soon.

A research report released by ANZ economists this week concludes inflation has likely peaked but that it won't fall back to the comfort zone - an annual rate of 1-3 per cent - until at least the end of 2023.

Getting the rate back to the ideal mid-point of 2 per cent might take until 2024.

And regardless of the exact timing, there is a growing consensus that the era of low deflation we experienced in the wake of the Global Financial crisis is over.

The world is a much more volatile place than it was a decade ago. In fact, there is a serious risk that the global economy - buffered by geopolitical tension, war, trade protectionism, climate change and rising food production costs - is just going to be a more inflationary place in the coming decade.

The good news in the ANZ outlook is that the rate of inflation isn't likely to get any worse. It's expected to fall quite quickly from the 7.3 per cent peak for the June quarter.

That puts New Zealand below the median of inflation rates around the developed world.
But we need to get past the idea that the global economy will return to pre-pandemic form anytime soon.

Assumptions about a falling rate of inflation are based on signs that shipping costs and commodity prices - including oil- have begun to ease in the past few months. But relying on those trends to hold is a big roll of the dice.

"Inflation risks are firmly to the upside," ANZ warns in its report. That means we're headed into an extended era of higher interest rates.

The Reserve Bank will have to work harder to keep inflation in check. For example, says ANZ, if labour costs surprise on the upside, inflation would be unlikely to return to the RBNZ's 1-3 per cent target band without the OCR rising above 4.

ANZ notes the RBNZ has just recently reset its "neutral" level for the OCR at 2 per cent but it warns that is likely to change.

Historically, we have lived with much higher neutral cash rates and perhaps it is time to recognise that pre-pandemic economic conditions were far from normal.

It's not going to be a popular message but higher inflation and a higher cost of borrowing might not be such a bad thing for the world.

For the past 20 years or so, the world has been addicted to easy credit and mass consumerism. Ever-cheaper products have poured out of factories in China and the world's consumer and housing debt mountains have grown to financially dangerous levels.

Higher consumer prices may over time force us to think more about our spending - and what we really need.

Higher production costs will also force us to think about how we generate power, grow food and what we need to manufacture.

Perhaps, ultimately, these changes in mindset might be a good thing for the world.