One Westpac economist picks CPI inflation will land at 1.9 per cent for the quarter, taking the annual inflation rate to 7 per cent. That's up from 5.9 per cent annual inflation for the 2021 year. Others predict it will be worse.
Last week, it was confirmed that food prices were 7.6 per cent higher in March compared with March 2021. This was the largest increase since the year ended July 2011 when prices increased 7.9 per cent - and that was partly due to a GST increase from 12.5 per cent to 15 per cent in October 2010.
Food price increases were widespread in all categories measured by StatsNZ, making it hard to dodge the price rises while filling half a shopping basket.:
Grocery food prices increased 6.7 per cent; fruit and vegetables increased 18 per cent; restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food were up 5.1 per cent; meat, poultry and fish prices increased 8.7 per cent; non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 2.7 per cent.
For those who had looked forward to the pandemic receding, this economic pill may be a hard one to swallow.
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr and Finance Minister Grant Robertson have traded words on how much the situation is because of Government spending but few doubted the support was needed during the pandemic to keep the wheels of industry turning and prevent widespread closures.
However, that strategy has brought the expected pain home to roost. Few territories are immune and most are faring much worse.
The Guardian points out that one in three Britons – 23.5 million people – will be unable to afford the cost of living this year.
The cost of battling Covid, followed by soaring prices for food and fuel, and then Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are all factors in the ballooning cost of basics.
There are always those who are worse off, and New Zealand should bear this in mind when the supermarket trolley costs $15 more than this time last year.
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation predicts the number of hungry people will reach 840 million by 2030 if current trends continue. The number of those facing acute food insecurity has more than doubled - from 135 million to 276 million - since 2019. Forty-four million people in 38 countries are at the edge of famine.
None of these comparisons will lessen the squeeze on wallets and people are quite entitled to express frustration and opinions on where the fault lies, but it may help put the matter in perspective.
One other positive is a new generation of New Zealanders is about to learn about fiscal discipline.
