NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

China's 'Wall of money'

By Sean O'Grady
23 Aug, 2007 10:00 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Economic xenophobia is drawing to an end. Photo / Reuters

Economic xenophobia is drawing to an end. Photo / Reuters

KEY POINTS:

The Chinese authorities have announced that for the first time, citizens will be permitted to own foreign shares.

Given the nerve-shredding gyrations on Western stock markets, that sounds like a good idea.

Millions of enthusiastic Chinese share buyers would be very helpful right now, underpinning stock exchanges weakened
by our own flight from riskier assets.

It will happen, although it seems, in typical Chinese style, to be something that will evolve slowly rather than burst forth upon the international scene with all the impact of a brightly decorated dancing dragon in a Chinese new year festival.

However the longer-term effects will be as dramatic, and, as they say over there, even the longest journey starts with a single step.

The beginnings are modest enough.

China's currency regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, has announced that Chinese citizens with a Bank of China account in the northern city of Tianjin will be allowed to invest in foreign equities under a pilot scheme.

The regulator didn't specify an investment maximum, and nor did they say when the trial will start.

Purchases will be limited to Hong Kong-listed shares, mostly firmly centred on the Hong Kong/Chinese economy but with a sprinkling of stocks that also offer a wider exposure to the world, such as HSBC and Standard Chartered.

Tianjin seems to have been chosen because the people's government wants to build the region up as another economic hub.

Since 1990 the Chinese have had stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and China allowed selected banks and brokerages to start investing overseas last year under the "qualified domestic institutional investor" programme.

So this new step isn't revolutionary in an ideological sense.

However, not since the foundation of the People's Republic in 1949 has such activity been sanctioned, and it marks a milestone in the internationalisation and the normalisation of the Chinese economy.

Economic xenophobia, so violently absolute in the Mao era, is finally drawing to an end.

"It's one of the ways to provide some cooling to the local market because so much liquidity has been trapped within the system with no outlet," said Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

"In terms of theoutlook for Hong Kong's market, that's going to be attractive."And traders there didn't need convincing about the importance of this move.

The Hang Seng has seen successive record highs this week, buoyed by the expectation of a Chinese shopping spree.

So how big will the impact be? The potential is dizzying.

The Chinese, thanks to rapid economic growth and rising wages, have amassed some 17 trillion yuan ($3.13 trillion) in household savings.

Around 7 per cent of the population own shares, compared to a fifth of Britons and half of all Americans.

Then again, that's 7 per cent of 1.3 billion, with both the population and the numbers holding shares growing rapidly.

Investors have opened 33 million brokerage accounts this year, six times the total for 2006.

Equities account for less than 15 per cent of Chinese households' financial assets, compared with half of those of American households (including pension funds), so again there seems to be plenty of ground for the Chinese to "catch up" on.

So far, Chinese investor's tastes in equity pretty much mirror the shape of their economy, with light and heavy manufacturing accounting for about 80 per cent of equity holdings.

Diversification into Hong Kong service stocks might well help the average Chinese investor to achieve a more broadly based exposure to capitalism.

Yet the story of the modern Chinese stock market is basically one of too much money chasing too few shares - hence the current bubble, which has pushed the average price-earnings ratio to 50.

The value of tradeable shares - excluding those held by the state - is only 25 per cent of GDP.

Considerable, but set that against figures of 150 per cent in America and over 100 per cent in India.

State-controlled companies and local and central government quangoes also own and hold shares, so the actual amount of equity available to private investors as we in the West would understand the term may be smaller still.

It also means that equities are relatively illiquid and subject to wilder price movements, something that, paradoxically, may help to fuel share speculation and the hot house atmosphere.

The Chinese have long enjoyed gambling as a popular pastime, and some of that traditional passion may have found its way into the markets.

So one extremely welcome effect of the Government's liberalisation of the law will be to take the heat off the Shanghai and Shenzen markets, and indeed the overheating Chinese real estate market, and to reduce inflation (running at over 5 per cent, a decade high) generally by encouraging citizens to buy more equities instead of consumer goods.

Globally, the Chinese will also increasingly make their presence felt.

On the plus side there will be that underpinning of international equity markets, again diversifying Chinese overseas investment away from its traditional destinations of US Treasury bonds and direct investment in foreign enterprises.

More capital flows offshore will curb growth in China's record $1.33 trillion foreign exchange reserves, which have flooded the economy with cash and stoked inflation.

Less positive are the politics, even geopolitics of all this.

There are already noisy grumblings in the West about Chinese economic power.

The resurgence of economic nationalism, especially in continental Europe, has made this sort of activity especially unpopular, as the EU's statespersons draw up lists of "strategic sectors" encompassing everything from aerospace to yoghurt makers.

So everyone from the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England to the German Chancellor seems to have voiced their displeasure at the size and power of China's sovereign fund, the China Development Bank.

It has famously paid A3;6.6bn for a 3 per cent stake in Barclays Bank, having earlier staked A3;1.5bn for 10 per cent of the US private equity group Blackstone.

There will be more deals like that, and they will one day be followed by Chinese private capital as well.

In some ways it echoes what happened in the 1980s, when Japan's similarly large trade surpluses with the US in particular were recycled into purchases of famous American companies and iconic buildings.

That was similarly resented in some quarters, until Japan's long slump put an end to talk about the Japanese "buying California" and similarly far-fetched ideas.

Will the Chinese soon be able to buy California? No, but the West needs to work out whether that great big dancing dragon is something to welcome or fear.

- INDEPENDENT

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Property

'We're saying no' – house-building boss on timber price hikes

Business

Food stats shock: Prices soar as fruit and veges follow butter spike

Business

'Tell your friends': Competition watchdog chairman defends advocacy of Uber rivals


Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

'We're saying no' – house-building boss on timber price hikes
Property

'We're saying no' – house-building boss on timber price hikes

New Zealand's busiest house builder v timber giant on price rises planned from October 1.

17 Jul 05:07 AM
Food stats shock: Prices soar as fruit and veges follow butter spike
Business

Food stats shock: Prices soar as fruit and veges follow butter spike

16 Jul 11:24 PM
'Tell your friends': Competition watchdog chairman defends advocacy of Uber rivals
Business

'Tell your friends': Competition watchdog chairman defends advocacy of Uber rivals

16 Jul 05:00 PM


Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

06 Jul 09:47 PM
NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP