NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Brian Fallow: Getting nowhere? You're not alone

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
1 Sep, 2016 06:00 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The old days of rising incomes have become just a memory for many, new study shows. Illustration / Anna Crichton

The old days of rising incomes have become just a memory for many, new study shows. Illustration / Anna Crichton

Brian Fallow
Opinion by Brian Fallow
Brian Fallow is a former economics editor of The New Zealand Herald
Learn more
The old days of rising incomes have become just a memory for many, new study shows

It used to be that people in rich Western countries could count on being better off than their parents and grandparents, confident that incomes would wobble around a reliably rising trend line.

The experience of the past decade challenges that comfortable assumption, concludes a report that think tank McKinsey published last month, titled "Poorer than their parents? Flat or falling incomes in advanced economies".

It concludes that two-thirds of households in advanced economies were in segments of the income distribution which had market incomes (from wages and capital) which were the same or lower in 2014 than they were in 2005, after adjusting for inflation .

Tax and transfer systems have softened the blow, but even so, disposable incomes were flat or lower for 20 to 25 per cent of income segments.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

By contrast, in the prior period from 1993 to 2005, the share of households with flat or falling incomes, market or disposable, was less than 2 per cent.

These dismal conclusions are not based on tracking the same households over time.

Rather, they are based on looking at the income distribution: ranking households by income and dividing them into segments (usually fifths or tenths) and comparing the incomes of the households falling within those groups with those in the same segment a decade earlier.

McKinsey looked at six countries in particular and found that the proportion of households in groups with flat or falling real market incomes between 2005 and 2014 was 97 per cent in Italy, 81 per cent in the United States, 70 per cent in both Britain and the Netherlands, 63 per cent in France and 20 per cent in Sweden.

So it is not just the poor being left behind. The middle ranges of the income distribution have been going nowhere too.

Of course, that period includes a severe recession, followed by an exceptionally weak and slow recovery, interrupted in Europe's case by a double dip recession in 2012 in the wake of the euro crisis.

Discover more

Opinion

Gaynor: Property prices a recipe for inequality

08 Jul 05:00 PM
Opinion

Brian Gaynor: Lessons from Dick Smith's collapse

15 Jul 05:00 PM
Opinion

Sports betting: The $5.7 trillion punt

24 Jul 04:05 AM
Opinion

KiwiSavers throwing away thousands

31 Jul 03:58 AM

This may no longer be the case given the massive potential scale and scope of labour displacement due to automation.

But weak gross domestic product growth is not the only, or even the most important, factor behind income stagnation.

Demographic changes have also had an effect, particularly the ageing of the population and a trend towards smaller households. A decline in the average number of wage-earners per household tends to retard household income growth.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Then there are structural changes in the labour market.

One is a decline in the share of national income flowing to labour rather than capital.

Another is the effect on low- and mid-skilled workers of increased global competition for the kinds of work they do.

Add to that the automation of more and more manufacturing and clerical tasks. McKinsey estimates that activities which account for 30 per cent of the work time of 60 per cent of US employees could be automated with available technologies.

In previous waves of technological advance, more jobs were created than destroyed, it says, and any tradeoff between productivity growth and employment growth was temporary. "This may no longer be the case given the massive potential scale and scope of labour displacement due to automation."

As households and governments contemplate their debt levels, they gulp and tighten their belts, reinforcing the stagnation.

Compounding all this has been growth in temporary and part-time work, particularly in lower-skilled occupations. In New Zealand, for example, one in every five part-time employees would like to, and could, work longer hours, according to the latest household labour force survey.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Moderating the impact of these trends is the effect of tax and transfer payments.
But not for everyone. In the United Kingdom the impact of changes in transfers and taxes between 2005 and 2014 was to boost the disposable incomes of the middle and higher income quintiles by between 4 and 6 per cent, but cut the bottom quintile's income by 7 per cent.

That may help explain some of that spectacular own goal - the Brexit vote.

A survey of sentiment McKinsey commissioned in the US, Britain and France provided an indication, it says, of the potentially corrosive social and economic consequences of flat or falling incomes. Between 30 and 40 per cent of respondents said their incomes were not advancing and did not expect the situation to improve for the next generation. They were the most likely to have negative views on trade and immigration.

The McKinsey report lends weight to the theory that advanced economies are stuck in a prolonged period of secular stagnation - chronically weak economic growth, masked only temporarily and unsustainably by very loose monetary policy and rapid debt accumulation.

As households and governments contemplate their debt levels, they gulp and tighten their belts, reinforcing the stagnation.

But governments and businesses are not helpless in the face of such trends. There are generic policies to boost productivity and economic growth: good competition policy, for example, and investment in infrastructure.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Beyond that we need policies targeted at those especially at risk, like easing the transition from education to employment. Having 11 per cent of the population aged between 15 and 24 not in employment, education or training - that is 71,000 young people - is a waste the country cannot afford.

Changes in the incidence, rather than the level, of the tax burden could help too.

How about trading off a capital gains tax for a lowering of the GST rate as the latter falls more heavily on low- and middle-income households?

Finally, chief executives and other business leaders might like to contemplate the simple notion that one man's employee is another man's customer. If everyone is intent on screwing down wages, the benefit to the cost line will be offset by a hit to the revenue line.

By contrast, Air New Zealand's presentation to the Labour Party's Future of Work seminar in Wellington last Friday highlighted the benefits of a collaborative approach: a 42 per cent lift in net profit after tax, higher dividends and a $2500 bonus for employees.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Stock takes

Stock Takes: Will reporting season see the end of a bear market?

08 May 09:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

Matthew Hooton: Desperate times call for bold measures

08 May 05:00 PM
Energy

'Like a Band-Aid': Methanex deal highlights energy supply challenges

08 May 05:44 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Stock Takes: Will reporting season see the end of a bear market?

Stock Takes: Will reporting season see the end of a bear market?

08 May 09:00 PM

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare will be the main event when it reports on May 28.

Premium
Matthew Hooton: Desperate times call for bold measures

Matthew Hooton: Desperate times call for bold measures

08 May 05:00 PM
'Like a Band-Aid': Methanex deal highlights energy supply challenges

'Like a Band-Aid': Methanex deal highlights energy supply challenges

08 May 05:44 AM
Premium
NZ banks face repaying $9.2b in cheap Covid loans in coming months

NZ banks face repaying $9.2b in cheap Covid loans in coming months

07 May 09:00 PM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP