Economists watching NZ housing market as price falls draw global attention

Houses in New Zealand are now in the minds of economists the world over. Photo / 123RF

The Financial Times has asked if the New Zealand housing market is the canary in the coal mine - or in our case, the Kiwi down the pit.

A new video says economists globally are watching what happens to our residential values because we could be leading the way in terms of a massive adjustment in valuations.

The video was headlined "NZ house market: warning to the world?"

"As the year unfolds, houses in New Zealand are now in the minds of economists the world over," says the video which raises the spectre of us being ahead of many other countries to feel the sharp and painful effects of fast rises then quick falls.

The video from USB/FT Transact noted how our national house prices had risen by 43 per cent in two short years following the pandemic's outbreak. Our price-to-income ratio topped that of many other OECD nations, ahead of Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan.

"The era of ultra-low interest rates and cheap finance has driven a global house price boom and in New Zealand the house price-to-income ratio has topped that of many OECD nations. But now, as interest rates rise and prices dip, the nation's housing market has become something of a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world," said an explanation with the video, out on August 16.

That referred to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand moves last October which resulted in interest rates rising.

Other countries, particularly the US, Australia and UK could take heed of New Zealand's situation, the video warns.

But the video also cites borrowers' high credit scores, a shortage of houses for sale and low unemployment rates.

Today, the Herald reported residential property value declines doubled between July and August, illustrating the acceleration of the housing market downturn.

The CoreLogic House Price Index said house values fell 0.9 per cent in July but 1.8 per cent in August to hit a new average of $991,647 last month.

That was down from $1.019m in June and $1.01m in July.

Nick Goodall, CoreLogic research head, said restricted and more expensive credit continued to affect increasingly weary buyers.

The latest Centrix Credit Indicator for August, also out today, showed rising demand for credit and arrears, pointing to people being under pressure to meet repayment obligations. Mortgage applications were down 25 per cent annually, suggesting people were putting real estate plans on hold in lieu of balancing their finances.

Today, realestate.co.nz issued a report saying the cooling housing market was offering plenty of choice for buyers in August, having an impact on average asking prices in many regions.

It cited average asking prices in Wellington down annually -6 per cent to $903,997, Hawke's Bay down -3.1 per cent to $787,344, Manawatu/Whanganui down -1.6 per cent to $627,564, Nelson and Bays down -0.7 per cent to $877,734 but Auckland up 0.4 per cent to $1,186,465, Northland up 0.7 per cent to $875,825, Southland up 1.1 per cent to $512,894 and the Coromandel up 1.1 per cent to $1,161,234.