The 2024 US election is consequential. Not only is Trump the next President, but his power is amplified by Republican control of the Senate and Congress.
New Zealand exporters are concerned their products will be slapped with high tariffs. Strengthening diplomatic links with the US will inevitably be a priority in 2025.
Peters nurses a sore spot that former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern lacked the political nous to jump on a spontaneous offer from Trump to start FTA talks during his first presidential term.
“If you were thinking on your feet, you would have shook his hand and confirmed it with a note within an hour. We’d have been on our way, I believe.
“No one knows how that would have gone, but our goal was to prise open the door.”
His foreign affairs aide talks of how Peters had earlier deployed a classic “bait and switch” strategy.
The “boss” had been making the point that New Zealand has supported freedom in two world wars.
Peters and his team had been, literally, everywhere. He talked about how the US had given a free trade deal to countries such as Morocco, but New Zealand was missing out.
Peters’ Georgetown University speech in December 2018 was the “bait”. That was where he opined the US has always had a role in the Asia-Pacific since the 19th century. But it needed to re-engage. The “switch”, outlined in a subsequent speech, was “very hardcore”.
Said the aide: “This is how you’ve gone backwards, and your trade relationships across Asia-Pacific.
“So that was the hard, crunchy bit, the rationale, the hard-headed economic rationale for re-engagement. It was classic ‘bait and switch’. And, you know, they were on the hook.”
An opportunity to re-engage on an FTA may (or may not) present itself.
It’s notable that Peters brought the respected diplomat Rosemary Banks out of retirement for a second time earlier this year to once again be New Zealand’s Ambassador to Washington DC, having made a judgment call that Trump would return to the White House.
“We’re not blindsided by the election result. We don’t get involved in other countries’ politics. We’re certainly ready for an administrative change. And all our planning proves that we were.
“I’m not going to boast about it. Except that if you read the New York Times, you’d be sadly astray.”
Courting India
Peters is laying the groundwork for a formal Prime Ministerial-led visit to India early next year.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Christopher Luxon to visit when they met on the outskirts of the East Asia Summit meeting in Laos.
Luxon has been chasing a free trade agreement with India.
Last month, Peters met with India’s External Relations Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong in Melbourne.
“This is the first time we’ve had the Australian, New Zealand and Indian foreign ministers together.
“Yeah, that’s actually quite, quite extraordinary,” he said.
In a visit to India in March, Peters also met India’s Vice-President, Jagdeep Dhankhar, and National Security Adviser Ajit Dova.
This is a marked shift in the focus of top-level discussions with India which were previously dominated by trade.
Peters is clear the four external ministers: Luxon, himself, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Trade Minister Todd McClay each have a role to play in strengthening the relationship.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has also invited Luxon to make an official visit to China next year.
Peters is expected to travel to Beijing ahead of that visit for formal consultations with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Selling New Zealand
One thing being on the road for more than 100 days this year has taught Peters is that New Zealand is seriously undercooked when it comes to marketing our value proposition offshore.
“If you were out there in the competing market of salespeople, what is our strategy? What are its components?
“And when somebody visits a company, can they walk into one place and find all they need to know, right here, right now as part of our export drive?”
He relates that he asked Cabinet Minister Shane Jones to tell him what was Singapore’s advice when he came back from a trip.
“It’s really quite simple. They said to Shane, ‘you simply have to come out and sell yourself’.
“There are people that I’ve worked with in recent years, who are ideal people for this purpose, but I don’t see them being employed for that job.
“We just think that civil servants can do it, and that we have been magnificently punching above our weight, which is all bulldust.”
He related a visit to the Philippines where an official was deputed to assist.
“But they were covering two countries, Indonesia and the Philippines.
“Now this is just a joke. Yeah, not their problem. It’s our problem. We haven’t got the resources to do the job.”
All of this is important because the New Zealand economy is not in good shape.
“Those of us who are saying this economy is in a far worse circumstance – not as a boast — have been proven to be right,” said Peters.
At the NZ First annual conference, Peters proposed a $100 million “Future Fund” which would incentivise investment into the fund via tax breaks.
It would be “ring-fenced from politicians and political interference” and used on projects “in the national interest, and not offshore globalised ownership”.
“We’ve got a pretty good idea of what our deficit will be,” Peters told the Herald. “We could dramatically change that with some serious initiatives that attracts money to fill gaps here, or to get going seriously.”
Peters will have a holiday – then it’s back into 2025. “You never give up in this business.”
Winston Peters’ 2025 priorities
● Deepen relationships with India, China, and the United States.
● Reinvigorate New Zealand’s presence and influence in the Pacific.
● Improve New Zealand’s export promotion and investment attraction capabilities.
● Foster closer collaboration between Government and private sector on export strategies, recognise the severity of the economic situation and the need for urgent action.
● Explore initiatives to attract more investment and fill budget deficits.
● Shift the country’s mindset from short-term thinking to a longer-term investment horizon.
