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Home / Business

Donald Trump promises 'epic' trade deal with China

By David J. Lynch
Washington Post·
4 Apr, 2019 11:50 PM5 mins to read

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US President Donald Trump. Photo / AP

US President Donald Trump. Photo / AP

President Donald trump touted prospects for an "epic" trade deal with China Thursday, but acknowledged that a settlement of a year-long commercial conflict remained at least a month away.

Speaking at an Oval Office meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Trump said a trade agreement between the two countries could come "within the next four weeks" followed by an additional two weeks to polish the text.

The president, with a salesman's flair, billed the hoped-for deal as "monumental" and "the granddaddy of them all."

But Trump said it was too soon to set a date for a signing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping with negotiators still haggling over core questions, such as a proposed enforcement mechanism and the future of each side's import tariffs.

"We have a ways to go," the president told reporters. "We are rounding the turn."

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A deal would end a commercial spat that has unsettled relations between the world's two largest economies, disrupted corporatesupply chains and left Americans slightly poorer, according to economists.

Trump's upbeat remarks, delivered on the second of three days of talks this week between US and Chinese negotiators,maintained the positivepresidential drumbeat that began earlier this year.

On February 22, Trump said he planned to meet with Xi "in the not-too-distant future." Three days later, he predicted that he would sign a deal "fairly soon."

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The president's thirst for an agreement with China has grown since the stock market began sliding from its October peak.

From the outset, his administration has been divided between advisers who fear the trade war's impact on the economy and financial markets and those who believe a showdown with China is long overdue.

The stock market's slide late last year increased the influence of market-friendly figures such as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a former executive at the investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Trade hawks such as chief negotiator Robert Lighthizer see the confrontation with China as perhaps Washington's last chance to reset relations with a nation intent on supplanting the United States as the world's technology leader.

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In recent bargainingsessions, negotiators have closed the gap on provisions governing digital trade, and access forAmericanbanks and financial institutions to China's market.

"There is indeed a lot of progress being made," said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president of the US Chamber of Commerce. "Both sides are working hard to wrap up the talks as soon as possible."

Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute, said the emerging accord would not erase all of the irritants in the US-China relationship. "It's closer to being a cease-fire," said Pillsbury, an occasional Trump adviser on China.

It remains unclear whether the United States will cancel some or all of the tariffs the president imposed last year on more than US$250 billion ($369.9b) worth of Chinese imports. The president has spoken of keeping at least some tariffs in place as leverage to encourage the Chinese government to comply with an eventual agreement.

China is pushing for the tariffs to be removed before it will agree to lift its retaliatory tariffs on US farm products and industrial goods including autos.

Trump boasts about the money the government collects in tariff payments, though he often insists incorrectly that foreigners pay the tab rather than Americans. A pair of recent academic studies concluded that the entire tariff burden has fallen on Americans.

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Tariffs on imports from China and other countries reduced "US real income of US$1.4b per month" and had a similar effect on countries that had retaliated against the United States, according to a study by economists David Weinstein of Columbia University, Mary Amiti of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University's Stephen J. Redding.

Also unclear is whether China will agree to the administration's demand for an enforcement mechanism allowing the United States to reimpose tariffs if it believes China is not fulfilling its obligations.

Though Trump has been pushing for the Chinese leader to travel to the United States to sign a trade deal, Xi is unlikely to do so unless the agreement is 100 percent complete. If the two leaders decide to haggle in person over any final details, a third-country venue is more likely.

Trump said Thursday that any summit would be "here," but he did not specify whether he meant Washington or elsewhere in the United States.

"Both leaders do seem to want a deal, so it's likely they'll get there," said Timothy Keeler, a partner at Mayer Brown and a former chief of staff for the US Trade Representative in the George W. Bush administration.

Trump long has been an outspoken critic of Chinese trade practices. During his presidential campaign, he assailed China for the "rape" of the American economy.

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He also vowed to eliminate the United States' chronic trade deficit with China, yet saw it climb to a record US$419.2b in 2018.

The president imposed tariffs on Chinese goods last year after concluding Beijing was forcing US companies to surrender proprietary technology in return for being allowed to do business in China.

Lighthizer, the chief US trade negotiator, also has complained about Chinese hackers stealing American trade secrets and discriminating against foreign companies.

In several rounds of talks, negotiators have roughed out an agreement of more than 120 pages that would include Chinese promises to restructure elements of its state-led economy and to boost substantially their purchases of American products.

The president's focus on securing huge new Chinese orders for American soybeans, aircraft and other products is expected to produce political gains in export-dependent states.

He has pressed negotiators to ensure Chinese buyers place the bulk of promised orders before the 2020 election, according to Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whom the administration has consulted during the talks.

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Scissors, and others who see China as a US adversary, worry the trade bargain may carry unintended consequences.

"Do we want to become more dependent on China as an export market?" he asked.

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