CoreLogic: NZ housing tops $1.5 trillion but early cooling signs begin to emerge

The total monetary value of New Zealand's housing stock has exceeded $1.5 trillion for the first time, despite the Government's best efforts to control it.

Nick Goodall, CoreLogic research head, said the latest house price index out today showed national housing values continued to rise in June and a new record was set at $1.53 trillion.

This is despite Government moves, including new loan to value ratios and lending limits.

CoreLogic found our houses are now worth $1.55 trillion, having passed the $1 trillion mark in September, 2016.

The Australian dwelling market broke the A$8 trillion dollar mark this year as well, CoreLogic found.

"The total value of all residential property in New Zealand has now streaked past the $1.5 trillion mark for the first time," Goodall said today.

But there is some good news for those hoping for change: values rose only 1.8 per cent in June compared to May's 2.2 per cent.

Goodall said that provided "early evidence of a gentle deceleration in market momentum.

"The rate of growth in June slowed in 12 of New Zealand's 18 largest markets, with a further three recording a drop in values over the month. In Gisborne, where values increased 35 per cent in the past 12 months, there was a surprising change of direction with a fall in value of -0.9 per cent over June," he said.

The exceptional growth in the last year was not sustainable, particularly with increased deposit requirements, market uncertainty driven by Government regulation and the prospect of higher interest rates.

"The turnaround should perhaps not be too much of a surprise, though the timing of it certainly is," Goodall said.

New Plymouth (-0.3 per cent) and Napier (-0.1 per cent) had minor value drops last month, but in both cases the strength of recent growth means the quarterly rates still exceed 7 per cent.

Nelson and Invercargill had value increases of 2.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent. In Palmerston North, further growth of 3 per cent in June took the annual growth rate to 38.6 per cent and an average property value of more than $700,000 for the first time.

NZ house values rose 22.8 per cent in the year to June.

The continued growth, albeit at a slower rate, has taken the average property value above $900,000 for the first time.

The $1.53 trillion was a real marker, Goodall said.

"These milestones will not necessarily be welcomed by all, especially hopeful first home buyers, however the tentative signs of change may provide some hope for would-be home buyers as well as the Government, who are under pressure to tilt the market in favour of new market entrants," he said.

The recent agreement to add debt-to-income controls to the Reserve Bank's macro-prudential toolkit adds another element of uncertainty for the market, Goodall said.

This is particularly true for investors, for whom any restrictions will likely be tighter, further limiting their activity in the market," he said.

Meanwhile, figures for the super-heated Auckland market will be released in the next two or so days. The city's largest agency, Barfoot & Thompson, will issue its June figures then.

It won't be till mid-July that the Real Estate Institute data is out for June.