NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Continuous Disclosure: The economic road ahead as NZ reopens

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
8 Feb, 2022 04:00 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

New Zealand's reopening plan will come as a relief for many. Photo / Michael Craig

New Zealand's reopening plan will come as a relief for many. Photo / Michael Craig

What's in store for the economy now that the Government has laid out a plan for a staged opening of New Zealand's borders?

So far, consumer price and labour data has pointed to a stronger-than-expected economy.

Last year's annual inflation rate of 5.9 per cent means higher interest rates are on the way.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

And higher interest rates are likely to come as a shock to those who have only experienced rate falls over the last six or seven years.

A sea change in the way central banks are reacting to the inflation challenge is creating uncertainty in the financial markets, as investors are forced to weigh up the likely impact of rising interest rates on asset prices.

The resulting market volatility means investors and borrowers alike will have plenty to think about in 2022.

In the latest episode of the investment podcast Continuous Disclosure, Jamie Gray talks to Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about the reopening, and the interplay between interest rates, asset prices and equity markets.

Kerr says New Zealand's reopening plan will come as a relief for many.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"We have now got some hard dates that people and business can work to.

"We will have students coming in here from April and visa workers coming through, and then hopefully we will be fully open by October.

"It really does shine some light on the end of the tunnel for the tourism industry and education.

"Education has been hit particularly hard - our universities - so getting their students in and getting workers in to help in horticulture is all very positive and something that we have wanted to see for a while."

Discover more

Construction

House building costs surge upwards

08 Feb 05:00 PM
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. Photo / Supplied
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. Photo / Supplied

The reopening plan comes as credit conditions are tightening significantly.

"The housing market is under significant stress at the moment. Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) changes, LVR changes and the threat of DTIs (debt to income ratios) has played on the housing market," he said.

"That (credit) supply shock is certainly impacting on the market right now. And interest rates are rising.

"You have people like me running around saying that they are rising and are going to keep rising.

"If you factor that into a decision when you are buying a house at mortgage rates that could be one, two or three per cent higher in a year or two's time, that is playing on the housing market as well."

Kerr said rising interest rates could come as a shock to people who a have only known interest rates to decline over the last six or seven years.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"So we are in a situation where interest rates are rising and people who took out mortgages last year at 2.1 or 2.2 per cent are suddenly waking up to mortgage rates of 3.5 or 4 per cent."

The prospect of tighter monetary conditions - coming at the tail end of the lowest interest rates in history - was making for volatile markets.

"We have seen a lot of hot money go into tech but also crypto assets and we have over the last month or so seen a sharp correction in those markets and in more value stocks."

There were signs of panic emerging as investors exited some of their riskier assets.

"Do you try and catch the falling knife here? I think if you took a longer view, I think now would be a good buying opportunity.

"It's times like these where those who are steadfast and have a long-term view and a long term strategy for investment can take advantage of these bouts of panic.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"There will be some stocks out there that are cheap, so this is the time to take a look."

Kerr said volatility of financial markets reflected the degree of uncertainty.

Domestically, the economic data looked quite strong.

"The other side of the coin is that central banks around the world are tightening and we are coming to the end of easy money, so that is being factored in to equity markets at the moment and I think we will continue to see volatility over the year ahead.

"But if I was a betting man, I would say that equity markets are going to be ending the year higher than where they started," Kerr said.

"It's just going to be a choppy road ahead."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Continuous Disclosure is a NZ Herald podcast.

Continuous Disclosure is available on IHeartRadio, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes come out every second Wednesday.

You can find more New Zealand Herald podcasts at nzherald.co.nz/podcasts or on IHeartRadio.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

live
Business

Watch: Willis speaks to Newstalk ZB as data shows more Kiwis can't afford bills

30 Jun 09:57 PM
RetailUpdated

The Warehouse downgrades earnings forecast to include a worst-case $5m loss

30 Jun 09:41 PM
Premium
Retail

Plumbing World parent reports $8.2m loss as construction downturn hits revenue

30 Jun 09:00 PM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Watch: Willis speaks to Newstalk ZB as data shows more Kiwis can't afford bills
live

Watch: Willis speaks to Newstalk ZB as data shows more Kiwis can't afford bills

30 Jun 09:57 PM

Those most affected by financial hardship are aged between 35 and 49.

The Warehouse downgrades earnings forecast to include a worst-case $5m loss

The Warehouse downgrades earnings forecast to include a worst-case $5m loss

30 Jun 09:41 PM
Premium
Plumbing World parent reports $8.2m loss as construction downturn hits revenue

Plumbing World parent reports $8.2m loss as construction downturn hits revenue

30 Jun 09:00 PM
Premium
'Annoying and offensive to girls': Why this image has led to removal order of Warehouse ad

'Annoying and offensive to girls': Why this image has led to removal order of Warehouse ad

30 Jun 07:03 PM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP