NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Budget 2025
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Companies

Global debt hits $152 trillion

By Tim Wallace
Daily Telegraph UK·
5 Oct, 2016 11:43 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Two bolts of lightning hit the antenna on top of One World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan. Photo / Getty

Two bolts of lightning hit the antenna on top of One World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan. Photo / Getty

Global debt has hit a record high of US$152 trillion (NZD$217 trillion), weighing down economic growth and adding to risks that recovery could turn into stagnation or even recession, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

In a worst-case scenario the IMF also fears that a wave of populist politics across the US and Europe could send globalisation into reverse with protectionist policies hitting international trade, investment and migration, sending the world plunging into a prolonged period of stagnation.

The warning came after the IMF cut its growth forecasts for a series of countries around the world, leaving Britain the fastest growing economy in the G7.

It is urging governments to help troubled banks in the worst-affected parts of Europe, spend more money on boosting economic growth where possible, and reform economies to increase GDP - as well as pushing to keep borders as open as possible.

"At 225pc of world GDP, the global debt ...is currently at an all-time high. Two-thirds, amounting to about $100 trillion, consists of liabilities of the private sector which can carry great risks when they reach excessive levels," the IMF said in its fiscal monitor.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"The sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery."

This debt burden is mounting at a time when slow growth means inflation and interest rates will remain low, making it hard for companies, individuals and governments to earn their way out of debt.

A combination of low growth, high debt and weak banks could push the world in a dangerous financial and political direction, the IMF said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"The political climate is unsettled in many countries. A lack of income growth and a rise in inequality have opened the door for populist, inward-looking policies," the IMF warned in its global financial stability report.

"These developments make it even harder to tackle legacy problems, further expose economies and markets to shocks, and raise the risk of a gradual slide into economic and financial stagnation. In such a state, financial institutions struggle to sustain healthy balance sheets, which weakens economic growth and financial stability."

The IMF does not name politicians directly, but the campaigns of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have seen a marked turn against globalisation in the US, while EU leaders have struggled to agree a trade deal with either the US or Canada.

In a hypothetical scenario imagining a wave of protectionism, the IMF said "These initiatives limit or reverse international trade and financial integration, generating a sell-off in stock markets on profitability concerns and reduced risk appetite, with the real equity price falling by 20pc in the eurozone, the UK and the US over two years," illustrating the scale of the danger.

Discover more

Banking and finance

Bank boss offers switching solution

08 Oct 11:29 PM

Banks would be crushed by the economic slump while private consumption and business investment would also fall, hitting growth further.

"Protectionist measures in Europe and the US [would] ultimately generate secular stagnation, given constrained macroeconomic policy responses," the IMF said.

Meanwhile it called for action to help troubled banks deal with their problems, reducing bad debts in the short-term, and kick-starting the supply of credit to boost longer-term growth.

Countries such as the UK and US have reduced their private sector debts only for government debts to soar, the reports said, while eurozone countries tried to hold down government debts but found their banks struggling under the weight of bad loans to the private sector.

Those countries which can afford to should subsidise good borrowers and help banks absorb the cost of writing off bad loans, the IMF suggested.

Structural problems in the banking market mean that even in an economic upswing, more than 25pc of banks in the rich world will still struggle.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

As a result the IMF proposes that the weakest banks should be shut down or merged into larger, stronger entities.

Closing one-third of all bank branches would also help modernise and rationalise the industry, saving $18bn of costs in the process, the IMF said.

Spending money on banks has not always been popular, but the IMF believes it would be powerful: "It can alleviate the recessionary impact of private sector deleveraging and result in lower public debt, compared to a no-policy-action scenario. It is also more effective than other standard fiscal stimulus measures. For the same fiscal cost, the output effects are about four times larger."

How did we get here?

The world did not rack up $152 trillion of debt overnight. This enormous debt is the combination of a borrowing binge in the years before the financial crisis, followed by policies to try to get out of the recession which followed the boom.

Western economies in particular borrowed heavily in the boom years. In the UK and the US, governments stepped in to bail out banks, meaning the financial sector recovered - but governments ended up with huge debts instead.

The eurozone tried a different route which left some of its governments with less debt, but many of its banks are still in trouble. Both are difficult positions to be in, especially when economists now want governments to spend more money to try to boost the economy.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Is it a problem?

Debts like this are never likely to disappear. Governments rarely run budget surpluses, so they typically add to their borrowing over the years.

It does not have to be a problem - as long as the economy is growing quickly. Unfortunately, the world economy is not growing fast, and some of the most indebted economies in the western world are very weak.

Just as a household runs into trouble when it has big debts but a flat or falling income, so governments can struggle when GDP is flat. Over time interest payments mount up, adding to the debt even when the economy is not growing.

How can we get out of this problem?

The IMF hopes that there are a couple of options to get out of this, though neither is painless.

Central banks have slashed interest rates to record lows, which helps governments because their borrowing costs are very low. This gives even indebted governments a little bit of breathing space.

Officials at the IMF recommend governments which can afford to spend more, do so - those with bad banks should help the banks clean up their bad loans, as well as forcing inefficient companies to merge and cut costs.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Governments with good banks could spend more on infrastructure to create jobs and boost the long-term potential of the economy.

And more crucially, they should get rid of the red tape which strangles economies, freeing up over-regulated jobs markets, slashing barriers to international trade and encouraging research and development to boost productivity growth.

Governments have been urged to take these steps for several years, however, and many have met political resistance.

If the IMF's fears come true and governments move in the opposite direction, closing borders and clamping down on trade, then a gloomy future of permanent debt and economic disappointment lies ahead.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Companies

RetailUpdated

'Heartbreaking': Smith & Caughey's to close for good, almost 100 job losses

21 May 06:00 AM
Premium
RetailUpdated

Inside the incredible rise and sad fall of Smith & Caughey’s – why it is closing for good

21 May 06:00 AM
Premium
Technology

Tech Insider: The Kiwis most likely to support an under-16 social media ban and the reasons why

21 May 05:00 AM

The Hire A Hubby hero turning handyman stereotypes on their head

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Companies

'Heartbreaking': Smith & Caughey's to close for good, almost 100 job losses

'Heartbreaking': Smith & Caughey's to close for good, almost 100 job losses

21 May 06:00 AM

Auckland's prestigious flagship retailer to close after 145 years despite rescue attempts.

Premium
Inside the incredible rise and sad fall of Smith & Caughey’s – why it is closing for good

Inside the incredible rise and sad fall of Smith & Caughey’s – why it is closing for good

21 May 06:00 AM
Premium
Tech Insider: The Kiwis most likely to support an under-16 social media ban and the reasons why

Tech Insider: The Kiwis most likely to support an under-16 social media ban and the reasons why

21 May 05:00 AM
'Rapid rate': US demand grows for Kiwi beverage product

'Rapid rate': US demand grows for Kiwi beverage product

21 May 04:00 AM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP