Traffic index shows economy on right road

The light traffic index, which provides a six-month lead on economic activity, rose 1 per cent after a flat January. Photo / Brett Phibbs

ANZ says its Truckometer indices continue to point to plenty of momentum in the domestic economy.

The heavy traffic index, which tracks truck and tanker movements on 11 roads chosen because they have historically provided a close fit to economic activity at the time, fell 1.3 per cent last month after a 0.8 per cent rise in January.

Though the results are seasonally adjusted they tend to saw-tooth around month to month. Taking the three months to February, to smooth through that, shows a rise of 1.7 per cent on the three months before, said ANZ economist Sharon Zollner.

Meanwhile, the light traffic index, which provides a six-month lead on economic activity, rose 1 per cent after a flat January. Over the three months to February it was up 1.4 per cent on the previous quarter.

It suggested solid growth rates over the next six months and that, if headwinds strengthened, the economy had enough momentum to carry us along for a while, Zollner said.

"All up, the light traffic index suggests the foot is flat on the floor. The heavy traffic index suggests the revs are already pretty high," she said. "We are anticipating annual average growth of nearly 3 per cent this year."