Career 12: The Year Ahead

In such an economically uncertain world, it’s a brave person who brings out an employment crystal ball. Photo / Thinkstock

Global uncertainty and local belt-tightening add up to an uncertain 2012 for job seekers

2011 was an annus horribilis for job hunters. Employees with excellent skills can almost always get work. Yet many job hunters, especially the under 25s, struggled to find suitable work.

Will 2012 be any better? Some recruitment and business people say: "yes". Others advise:
"be patient".

The words that loom large in employment for 2012 aren't warm fuzzy ones. They're: "Europe", "bankrupt", "volatile" and "Christchurch".

To look forward, it's necessary to look at what's happening at the moment. Employment prospects for Kiwi job hunters and employers were looking on the up at the beginning of 2011.

April proved to be a turning point for employment in New Zealand. A downward turn that is. And the remainder of 2011 wasn't much better, says James Brooke, principal at recruitment company Numero.

Employers are doing about 60-70% of employing that they would do in a strong market, says Brooke. "That is reflected in our work. We're at about 65 to 70% capacity."

Sadly Brooke believes the traditional February to June boost in employment markets isn't likely to eventuate in 2012. He believes that employers and employees may be looking at 2013 before there is a significant uplift in the job market.

Much of the problem is international volatility, says Bede Ashby, managing director at Momentum Consulting Group.

"No one can predict what the economic outlook is except that it will be volatile," says Ashby. "The best case scenario is that Europe settles down, the United States starts growing and Wellington gets very little wind.

"Alternatively the world tanks as Greece goes bankrupt, the US plummets into another recession; Spain, Portugal and Italy ask Germany to invade them and France goes to lunch because it's all too hard."

The reality is likely to be less dramatic, says Ashby. None-the-less volatility is here to stay and businesses need to plan around it however difficult that might be. "That means that you need to manage R and D, business costs, inventory and employment intentions very carefully," he says.