How safe is flying? New figures reveal chances of being in an air crash

IATA calculates you would have to fly every day for 103,239 years to experience a fatal accident. Photo / 123f

The chances of being in an air crash fell last year to below the five-year average with airlines recording some of their best safety results.

International Air Transport Association (IATA) figures show there were no hull losses or fatal accidents involving passenger jet aircraft in 2023

However, there was a single fatal accident involving a turboprop aircraft, resulting in 72 fatalities - the crash of a plane in Nepal last January.

The fall in accidents came as there were 37 million aircraft movements in 2023 (jet and turboprop), an increase of 17 per cent on the previous year.

The all-accident rate was 0.80 per million sectors in 2023 (one accident for every 1.26 million flights), an improvement from 1.30 in 2022 and the lowest rate in over a decade.

This rate outperformed the five-year (2019-2023) rolling average of 1.19 (an average one accident for every 880,293 flights).

The fatality risk improved to 0.03 in 2023 from 0.11 in 2022 and 0.11 for the five years, 2019-2023.

At this level of safety, on average a person would have to travel by air every day for 103,239 years to experience a fatal accident, IATA says.

Fatality risk measures the exposure of a passenger or crew to a catastrophic accident with no survivors. The association estimates that 4.7 billion people will fly this year, a record number.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said that although there was the lowest fatality risk and “all accident” rate on record, the crash in Nepal reminded the industry it couldn’t take safety for granted.

“And two high profile accidents in the first month of 2024 (a Japan Airlines runway collision and a door plug popping from an Alaska Air plane) show that, even if flying is among the safest activities a person can do, there is always room to improve.”

The association represents 320 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global air traffic. It operates the IATA operational safety audit (IOSA). There are 425 IATA members and 100 non-members on the register.

Since 2005, the all-accident rate for airlines on the IOSA registry is almost three times better than for non-IOSA airlines. The report shows that in the 18 years the most common accidents were a result of “runway excursion”, hard landing and land gear problems.

The 2023 all-accident rate improved compared to 2022 for all regions with the exceptions of North America and Asia Pacific.

No regions experienced a jet hull loss in 2023.

Asia-Pacific recorded a fatal turboprop hull loss, a loss-of-control accident in Nepal in January 2023 with 72 fatalities. As a consequence, all regions except Asia-Pacific recorded a fatality risk of zero in 2023.

North America: The all-accident rate rose from 0.53 per million sectors in 2022 to 1.14 in 2023, but remained better than its 5-year average for the region of 1.21. The largest proportion of accidents in 2023 were related to landing gear collapses.

Asia-Pacific: The all-accident rate increased from 0.56 per million sectors in 2022 to 0.78 in 2023, but was better than the 5-year average for the region of 1.06. The fatality risk rate per million sectors rose for Asia-Pacific operators from 0.00 in 2022 to 0.16, owing to the fatal accident in Nepal in January 2023, which was due to loss of control in flight.

Africa: The all-accident rate improved from 10.88 per million sectors in 2022 to 6.38 in 2023, better than the 5-year average of 7.11. In 2023, there were no fatalities. This region has had no jet hull losses or fatal accidents since 2020. Additionally, 2023 marked the fifth occurrence of Africa reporting zero fatal turboprop accidents, with the first instance recorded in 2015.

Middle East and North Africa: The all-accident rate improved from 1.30 accidents per million sectors in 2022 to 1.16 in 2023 and was also better than its 5-year average of 0.96. While no accidents were related to Global Navigation Satellite System interference, it has emerged as a critical area of concern in the region.

Commonwealth of Independent States (Russia): The all-accident rate improved from 2.16 accidents per million sectors in 2022 to 1.09 in 2023. This rate is better than the region’s 5-year average of 3.19 accidents per million sectors. Note that CIS sectors may undergo larger revisions than normal once actual flown sectors become available. This will affect accident rate as well as fatality risk calculation.

Europe: The all-accident rate improved from 0.98 per million sectors in 2022 down to 0.48 accidents in 2023. This rate is better than the region’s 5-year average of 0.77 accidents per million sectors. The region has had a fatality risk of zero since 2018. The largest proportion of accidents were related to landing gear collapses.

North Asia: The all-accident rate improved from 0.45 accidents per million sectors in 2022 to 0.00 in 2023. This was better than the region’s 5-year average of 0.16 accidents per million sectors. The fatality risk rate improved from 0.23 in 2022 to 0.00 in 2023.

Latin America and Caribbean: In 2023, the region reversed an increase in accidents from the previous year. The all-accident rate per million sectors improved from 4.47 in 2022 to 0.37 in 2023, better than the 5-year average of 1.91.

Data for IATA’s annual safety report is by analysing data from over 100,000 flights each day.

Grant Bradley has been working at the Herald since 1993. He is the Business Herald’s deputy editor and covers aviation and tourism.