NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • Deloitte Fast 50
    • Generate wealth weekly
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Companies / Banking and finance

Business confidence rises with a ‘can’t get any worse vibe to it’ - ANZ

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
31 Jul, 2024 01:55 AM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save
    Share this article
Construction and retail are still the weakest sectors, but forward-looking activity indicators generally bounced in July, ANZ says. Photo / Michael Craig

Construction and retail are still the weakest sectors, but forward-looking activity indicators generally bounced in July, ANZ says. Photo / Michael Craig

Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and firms’ expectations for their own activity lifted 4 points to +16, the ANZ Business Outlook survey shows.

But the July survey was a mixed bag, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.

“Forward-looking activity indicators generally bounced with a bit of a ‘well, can’t get any worse’ vibe to it”, she said.

Reported past activity, which has the best correlation to GDP, fell further to a net 24% of firms reporting that activity in the previous month was lower than a year earlier.

“Most sectors continue to deteriorate, with construction and retail the weakest sectors by quite some margin.”

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The economy-wide indicator was looking very soft, she said.

Firms’ numerical estimates of where their own selling prices will be in three months lifted for every sector except services, though not in a way that threatened the downward trend, Zollner said.

The average lifted from 1.2% to 1.4%. The construction sector had the lowest pricing intentions (1%).

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

“Encouragingly for the RBNZ, the 29% of responses that came in after both the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review (10 July) and the CPI data (17 July) showed lower inflation expectations, pricing intentions and particularly cost expectations (interest rates are a cost for many businesses),” she said.

The activity indicators were not notably different.

A heatmap of different industry sectors showed a real mixture of results, Zollner said.

“Construction is the most pessimistic, but firms across the economy are still pretty blue.”

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the inflation "dragon" is almost defeated. Photo / File
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the inflation "dragon" is almost defeated. Photo / File

Reported wage increases versus a year earlier lifted from 3.6% to 3.8%. Arguably this was more important for the inflation outlook, Zollner said.

Expectations for wages over the next 12 months were steady at a rate the RBNZ would likely be quite content with.

“We’re still in a ‘bad news is good news’ world as far as the RBNZ is concerned, but hopefully not for too much longer,” she said.

“With increasing evidence that monetary policy has worked and possibly rather too well, there is now a widespread expectation that the RBNZ will commence easing the Official Cash Rate this year.

Just as it took time for the pain from rate hikes to feed through into the broader economy, lower rates would not provide immediate relief to many.

“With unemployment rising and fiscal policy now far less expansionary, things are likely to feel worse before they feel better.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

“But the evidence is mounting that the inflation dragon is on its last legs, which sets the New Zealand economy up for a more robust recovery than if the job were half done”.

Liam Dann is Business Editor at Large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, as well as presenting and producing videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.

Save
    Share this article

Latest from Banking and finance

Premium
Business

Westpac NZ boss Catherine McGrath on the burden of banking and why big profits aren’t necessarily a bad thing - Money Talks

Banking and finance

Reserve Bank bows to Govt's wishes - proposes loosening bank capital rules

Premium
Banking and finance

Reserve Bank doubles Auckland office space just as staff redundancies hit


Sponsored

Farm plastic recycling: Getting it right saves cows, cash, and the planet

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Banking and finance

Premium
Premium
Westpac NZ boss Catherine McGrath on the burden of banking and why big profits aren’t necessarily a bad thing - Money Talks
Business

Westpac NZ boss Catherine McGrath on the burden of banking and why big profits aren’t necessarily a bad thing - Money Talks

Westpac's Catherine McGrath on career choices, the importance of banking and big profit.

29 Aug 05:00 PM
Reserve Bank bows to Govt's wishes - proposes loosening bank capital rules
Banking and finance

Reserve Bank bows to Govt's wishes - proposes loosening bank capital rules

24 Aug 11:19 PM
Premium
Premium
Reserve Bank doubles Auckland office space just as staff redundancies hit
Banking and finance

Reserve Bank doubles Auckland office space just as staff redundancies hit

24 Aug 10:13 PM


Farm plastic recycling: Getting it right saves cows, cash, and the planet
Sponsored

Farm plastic recycling: Getting it right saves cows, cash, and the planet

10 Aug 09:12 PM
NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP