The ANZ Business Outlook Survey has also pointed to a steady improvement in confidence for the past two months - albeit from low levels.
ANZ now forecasts GDP growth of 10 per cent in the quarter to September 20 and growth of 2.5 per cent the December quarter.
That would take the GDP drop for the calendar year to just -2.4 per cent.
However, it sees a negative first quarter for 2021 followed by low growth through into 2022 as the impact of closed borders and the global downturn takes its toll.
It is picking unemployment will come in at 5.4 per cent for the September quarter but will rise steadily to peak at 7.4 per cent by late 2021.
The outlook was looking a bit more positive for the Reserve Bank than was included
in the August MPS forecasts, Zollner said.
"But downside risks remain. We expect that the RBNZ will drop the OCR 50bps in April next year, but risks around this outlook are looking more balanced, rather than firmly to the downside."