Another decade-low for monthly car sales in July - but also a positive sign, of sorts

Sales are down 21% on 2023, year-to-date. Photo / 123rf

July new vehicle sales were the worst in more than a decade - matching the grim mark hit in June.

There were 9430 new vehicle registrations. Apart from July 2023, when sales plunged to 6202 as a hangover from the 23,560 as the Clean Car Discount juiced the market the month before, you have to go back to 2012 to find a lower number.

Overall sales are down 21% this year. The hardest-hit light passenger vehicle segment is down 29% - partly due to flatlining EV sales with the elimination of the Clean Car Discount and the introduction of Road User Charges.

July saw Wholesale Motors Christchurch placed in liquidation owing more than $315,000, following Euro City Napier, which went bust in May owing over $1 million.

Yet Motor Industry Association chief executive Aimee Wiley sees a positive trend - or at least a bottoming out.

“Given all the doom and gloom out there at the moment, the good news is that volumes haven’t dropped lower,” the MIA head told the Herald.

“There’s a stabilising trend in that registrations have remained at the mid-9000s level for four months this year and haven’t fallen further.”

To a degree, she sees the ball in Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s court.

“I know it is a tough time right now for importers, distributors and dealers alike. Everyone is looking forward to signs of economic recovery and the next OCR announcement for rates to start coming down again will be a positive first step toward that.”

Last month saw another leg up, with Transport Minister Simeon Brown driving legislation, passed under urgency, to weaken the Clean Car Standard - or financial penalties for importers who bring in high-emission vehicles. The Government can now tweak the scheme’s CO2 targets (more on the changes below).

Utes a bright point

The abolition of the “ute tax” continues to buoy light commercial sales. which at 3023 year-to-date have been almost stable with 2023 (3084) as the rest of the market stalls around them. July’s top three:

The top-selling light commercial models

1. Ford RangerL 757 (30.2% market share)
2. Toyota Hilux: 589 (23.5%)
3. Mitsubishi Triton: 270 (10.8%)

Total sales by motive power for July

Overall, petrol and diesel vehicles continued to reassert themselves after the Clean Car Discount-powered EV rise of 2023 - a year that saw electric vehicles account for one in five sales during several months (see chart below).

1. ICE (internal combustion engine): 6656 (71% share)
2. Mild hybrid: 1978 (21%)
3. Battery electric: 566 (6%)
4. Plug-In Hybrid: 230 (2%)

Outside of ICE, the only perk-up was in “mild hybrid” sales. That is, hybrid vehicles that don’t have to be plugged into the wall - and thus escape road user charges.

Conversely, sales of plug-in hybrids or “phevs” have stalled. Phevs get hit by both petrol tax and road user charges (albeit at $38 per 1000km to full EV’s $76 per 1000km).

Top-selling pure EVs

Battery electric sales continued to be a faction of their 2023 level in July.

1. BYD Atto 3: 59
2. Tesla Model Y: 56 units
3. VW ID.4: 43
4. Tesla Model 3: 42 units
5. EV9: 31

Corson told the Herald that the industry’s pain was consumers’ gain.

“There are price reductions right across the EV market.”

She reiterated recent research that found even with the Clean Car Discount gone and the new road tax, EVs are still cheaper to own and run (even if the gap with petrol cars has narrowed - and even disappears if you lean too heavily on more expensive public chargers).

Top-selling non-plugin hybrids

1. Toyota RAV4: 394 (6.2% share)
2. Kia Seltos: 342 (5.4%)
3. Mitsubishi ASX,: 311 (4.9%)

Top-selling plug-in hybrids (phevs)

1. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross: 44
2. Mitsubishi Outlander: 28
3. BYD Sealion 6: 20
4. BMW X5: 11, Hyundai Tucson: 11

Will Clean Car Standard changes work?

Brown says the shift could save thousands off the price of a vehicle.

“We’re aligning the Clean Car Importer Standard with Australia to provide our market with certainty, reduce emissions, and reduce costs for Kiwis purchasing a vehicle,” the Transport Minister said.

Savings of up to $5000 have been touted on a commercial vehicle.

But it could take a while to see how things wash through.

Unlike the Clean Car Discount for consumers, which was applied to individual vehicles (until it was scraped on December 31), the Clean Car Standard applies to a vehicle importer’s business as a whole. Charges for high-emission vehicles can be offset by credits for bringing cleaner vehicles into the country. Reconciliation can be on an annual basis.

Kirsten Corson, chair of ginger group Drive Electric said the landscape was different across the Tasman, because Australia’s Federal Government, and various states, had maintained EV incentives, including an exemption from fringe benefit tax, interest-free loans and higher subsidies for public charges. (Although there has been some movement in the opposite direction recently, too. New South Wales scrapped an A$3000 EV rebate and stamp duty exemption on January 1).

The MIA’s Wiley - a strong advocate of decarbonisation overall - said her organisation strongly supported changing the Clean Car Standard to match CO2 emission targets with Australia’s.

“This alignment is a positive and necessary step for the industry and everyday Kiwis,” she said.

“New Zealand’s emission targets cannot outpace those of our supply markets without imposing financial burdens on consumers.

“Everyone loses if future targets exceed what two-thirds of new vehicles can meet. Consumers will face higher costs due to penalties, and emission targets will remain unmet.”

Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.