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Home / World

US midterms 2022: Democrats ‘miscalculated’ on abortion - and could now pay the price

By Nick Allen
Daily Telegraph UK·
8 Nov, 2022 11:21 PM4 mins to read

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President Joe Biden's speech was hosted by the Democratic National Committee on Nov. 2. "We can't take democracy for granted any longer". Video / AP

Democrats have become embroiled in an internal row as insiders questioned their campaign strategy, which focused heavily on the issue of abortion rather than the economy.

As Americans went to the ballot box for the midterm elections, final opinion polls showed inflation and the cost of living were by far the most important issues for voters.

But for weeks, Democrat strategists chose to target television advertisements and candidate speeches on the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, which had enshrined the nationwide right to abortion.

The party spent a total of $320 million on adverts highlighting the issue of abortion - 10 times more than the $31 million it spent on ones about how to tackle inflation, which is at a 40-year high.

Democrats also made the refusal of some Republicans to accept the results of the 2020 election a centrepiece of their campaign.

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One former senior White House official, who used to work withUS president Joe Biden, told The Telegraph: “We miscalculated that voters were going to be motivated by Roe and threats to democracy itself.

“Those, quite obviously, are not effective with those that we needed to connect with. It’s a rallying cry for the base.”

Democrats had gained momentum following the Supreme Court decision in June, which led to an increase in voter registration among women in several key states.

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But Republicans relentlessly concentrated on the economy and rising crime, which led to polls moving their way in the weeks before the elections.

With voting under way, Republican officials expressed confidence that there would be a “red wave”.

The hotly-debated abortion issue has added a new dimension to the  US midterm elections. Photo / AP
The hotly-debated abortion issue has added a new dimension to the US midterm elections. Photo / AP

Ronna McDaniel, chairman of the Republican National Committee, accused Biden of trying to “duck blame for his failures on soaring inflation and out of control crime”.

Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst at Inside Elections, said: “What we’ve seen over the last month is political gravity begin to reassert itself. Voters care a lot about the economy, and they blame Biden for inflation.”

Although final pre-election polls showed Democrats still had a 45 per cent chance of retaining the Senate and an outside prospect of holding on to the House of Representatives, frustration with the conduct of the campaign was already apparent.

One White House official said it “became clear a couple of months ago” that voters on the doorstep were not “opening the conversation with abortion”.

Another said: “The number of families facing a decision on abortion is far less than those worrying about the economy at any given point in time.”

However in a statement, a White House spokesman defended the strategy - saying there had not been an “over-focus” on reproductive rights.

A Democratic National Committee spokesman added: “This is an issue that has been motivating.”

A final pre-election Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Biden’s approval rating had sunk to 39 per cent, and that more than two-thirds of Americans believed the country was on the “wrong track”.

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The final poll by NBC News showed 58 per cent of voters said cost of living was the most important issue, while 38 per cent said abortion.

However, as voters went to the polls, there were some positive signs for Democrats.

The NBC News poll showed 73 per cent of Democrat voters had a “high interest” in the election, the same as Republicans. A month ago Republicans had led by nine points.

And a Politico-Morning Consult poll showed 48 per cent of voters saying they supported Democrat congressional candidates, with only 43 per cent choosing Republican ones.

In his final rallying cry, Biden said: “We know in our bones that our democracy is at risk and we know that this is your moment to defend it.”

However, the president appeared to forget the name of Wes Moore, the Democrat candidate for governor in Maryland, who he was campaigning with.

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He said: “And, of course, you got that next governor. What’s his name? Wes… Wes…”

As the audience held up signs showing the name, he said: “Wes Moore! The guy’s the real deal.”

Addressing a heckler in the stands, Biden said: “You look crazy enough to jump. Don’t jump. Don’t jump.”

On the eve of the election, Biden added: “I think we’ll win the Senate. I think the House is tougher. I’m optimistic. But I’m always optimistic.”

Rory Cooper, a former Republican official in the House, said: “I find it almost comical that Republicans and Democrats are talking about what they’re going to do in the new Congress. Neither side is going to get anything done.”

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