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Home / World

US election 2020: Change at the top would bring calmer approach overseas

By Nicola Lamb
NZ Herald·
2 Nov, 2020 02:00 AM4 mins to read

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Supporters of US President Donald Trump cheer as he arrives for a campaign rally in Bullhead City, Arizona. Photo / AP

Supporters of US President Donald Trump cheer as he arrives for a campaign rally in Bullhead City, Arizona. Photo / AP

Opinion

ANALYSIS: We already know how former Vice-President Joe Biden would approach America's reset with the world should he get the chance to reboot the country.

AP reports the Democratic candidate, the favourite to win the United States presidential election, would contact several world leaders should he do so. He would offer the simple message: America is back.

As to whether America's relationships with other countries could easily snap back to a pre-Trumpian state is another question. Has too much happened for a Biden-run Washington to just wander back in, shrugging into its old comfortable jacket?

The pandemic has also left countries more focused on their own regions than before and wary the US is no longer as reliable and predictable. Other US politicians will try to follow President Donald Trump's populist path. Some nations may want to build in less reliance on the US in their planning.

Biden would have some factors in his favour.

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There would be general relief among some longstanding allies at a change in Washington and Biden has familiarity with leaders as former President Barack Obama's deputy.

At the same time, the relentlessly chaotic drama of Trump's White House and the long slog of the pandemic means expectations are already adjusted to a subdued but determined post-election period. It will be hard work for countries everywhere to recover from the coronavirus.

Biden would have such a huge domestic programme - the pandemic, economy, job creation, climate, racial justice reform - that his focus would be heavily focused on his back yard. There is a strong "made in America" theme to his jobs plans which include infrastructure investment and self-reliance on essential medical equipment.

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Restoring old alliances to better health will be crucial to Biden's foreign policy approach, and a 180 degree turn on the Paris accord and World Health Organisation would be early steps.

Should he win re-election, Trump's hardball "America First" bilateral approach would presumably continue.

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Trump has said he wants to bring remaining troops back from Afghanistan and the US reached a deal earlier this year with the Taliban. Violence has continued regardless.

New agreements, shepherded by the Trump Administration, normalising relations between Israel and other Middle East countries are something Trump or Biden would probably build on. And the enhanced focus on the Quad defence group of the US, India, Japan and Australia to check China will likely continue.

Biden is sure to pressure other countries on climate change.

Senior adviser Antony Blinken, a former deputy secretary of state, told a US podcast 85 per cent of global emissions were produced from other countries, meaning an international agenda was needed. Passing a major climate package through Congress would "strengthen our hand".

Blinken also spoke of a proposal to hold a summit of democracies to discuss common challenges such as corruption.

Reuters reports that Biden would consult allies before making a decision on the Trump Administration's tariffs on China in a bid for "collective leverage," one adviser said.

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"The failure of the Trump Administration has been to go it alone. And that has given China an escape hatch," Biden aide Jeffrey Prescott said.

A second term Trump Administration would also have to decide what to do about the China tariffs.

Biden would want to cooperate with China on issues such as the climate crisis and North Korea. Biden would most likely try to bring back a collective approach to dealing with Iran and North Korea on nuclear issues.

Trump pulled the US out of a multi-power nuclear pact with Iran and instituted his "maximum pressure" campaign against the country. Should Trump be returned, there would be a strong likelihood of further conflict with Tehran.

"Getting through a second Trump term without a war with Iran would be a small miracle," Benjamin Friedman, policy director at Defence Priorities, told CNBC.

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