Democrats are hoping in November to capitalise on anger at Trump’s agenda. Republicans will try to defy recent political trends and hold on to their control of Congress.
The House majority is the marquee prize in the Midterms.
Republicans have been clinging to a narrow edge in the chamber, at times complicating their agenda.
Because the competition in the Texas House race was down to two Democrats, the effect on the balance of power has been long anticipated.
Special elections coming later this year to fill vacancies in Georgia, New Jersey, and California could further alter the partisan breakdown of the chamber.
Menefee defeated fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards, the Associated Press reported, winning a Houston-area district briefly held by Democrat Sylvester Turner before his death in March.
When Menefee is sworn in, Democrats will have 214 House seats. Republicans hold 218, giving House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) a razor-thin margin.
To pass legislation, Johnson can lose only one Republican vote if all members are present and otherwise vote along party lines.
In Texas, the Midterms are set to be contested under a new House map backed by Trump that state GOP leaders enacted last year.
Both Menefee, a former Harris County Attorney, and Edwards, a lawyer and former Houston City Council member, will immediately move to an unusual intraparty contest in a newly redrawn district against longtime Representative Al Green (Democrat). Texas will hold its primaries on March 3.
Residents of Texas’s 18th district are now set to have representation in the House through to the end of Turner’s term after nearly a year of vacancy.
For months, Texas Democrats had accused Governor Greg Abbott (Republican) of deliberately delaying the special election to fill the vacant seat to help Republicans maintain a slim majority.
Abbott blamed Harris County for election administration issues, saying he had to schedule the election for late last year to give officials there time to prepare.
The 18th district, which covers much of central Harris County, has a predominantly black and Latino population.
The district has been a Democratic stronghold for decades and has been represented by civil rights leaders such as Sheila Jackson Lee and Barbara Jordan.
Throughout his campaign, Menefee touted himself as a fighter with a record of suing the Trump Administration, focusing heavily on healthcare, voting rights and federal funding to the district.
The runoff took place because no candidate won a majority of the vote in the November special election. Menefee was the top vote getter then, with roughly 29%, while Edwards finished second with about 26%.
The state Senate special election was to replace Republican Kelly Hancock, who became the state’s acting comptroller.
With most of the vote tallied, Rehmet was ahead by more than 14% .
Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and union leader, won nearly 48% of the vote in the November special election to face Wambsganss in the runoff.
Wambsganss is an executive at Patriot Mobile, which describes itself as “America’s only Christian conservative wireless provider”.
Rehmet’s victory is largely symbolic because candidates will have to run for the seat again in November, before the Texas legislature begins its next session in January 2027.
But strategists and analysts look at special elections as one barometer for measuring the national political mood and voter attitudes.
Democrats have tended to do better than Republicans in special elections and other lower-profile races in recent years, while the GOP was successful in 2024 with Trump at the top of the ballot.
“Senator-elect Rehmet ran an exceptional campaign focused on solutions to the issues that families care most about, from the rising cost of groceries and utilities to the healthcare crisis,” Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin said in a statement, adding that this win is “a warning sign to Republicans across the country”.
Trump today tried to play down any effort to connect the unpopularity of his presidency and policies to the GOP losses in Texas.
“I’m not involved with that. That’s a local Texas race,” Trump told reporters. “I’m not on the ballot. So you don’t know whether or not it’s transferable.”
Trump first endorsed Wambsganss over the summer, and on Saturday he urged his followers to get out the vote in the special election, writing on Truth Social that she “has my Complete and Total Endorsement”.
Niha Masih and Matt Viser contributed to this report.
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