Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed a 20-point peace plan, marking his closest offer to cede territory. Photo / Getty Images
Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed a 20-point peace plan, marking his closest offer to cede territory. Photo / Getty Images
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made an offer that is the closest the Ukrainian President has come to ceding territory, in a 20-point peace plan backed by the US.
The deal is a phoenix out of the ashes of an earlier 28-point proposal negotiated between Steve Witkoff, the US envoy, and Russia’sKirill Dmitriev, which essentially demanded that Ukraine surrender.
The latest proposal is less favourable to Russia, but still requires it to compromise on territory and on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
US negotiators are expected to deliver the draft document to Moscow for consideration on Christmas Eve.
Here is every point in the new plan and what it means.
1. The signatories affirm that Ukraine is a sovereign state
Favours: Ukraine
As with the original text, Ukraine’s sovereignty is being confirmed as part of any peace deal. This is a blow to Vladimir Putin, who has long denied Kyiv’s right to exist. Including this as the opening clause signals that Putin’s maximalist war aims of conquering the country have failed.
2. The document constitutes a full and unquestionable non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A monitoring mechanism will be set up to oversee the conflict line using satellite-based unmanned surveillance, ensuring early detection of violations
Similar non-aggression agreements have been struck between Russia, Ukraine and Europe in the past. They did not stop Putin’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, nor his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 or his Little Green Men campaign in Ukraine’s Donbas the same year.
This point has been included in the hope that Putin is finally ready to honour an international agreement. The addition of a ceasefire violation monitoring system comes as a bonus.
3. Ukraine will receive security guarantees
Favours: Ukraine
For Zelenskyy, security guarantees are what allowed him to consider a territorial concession. He could not sign up to any deal if Europe and the United States did not make commitments to engage militarily in the event of a future invasion by Putin or Russia.
4. The size of Ukraine’s armed forces will remain at 800,000 personnel during peacetime
Favours: Ukraine
A previous version of the document was a lot harsher when it came to limiting the size of Ukraine’s post-war military.
The limit is academic, given that Kyiv would be unable to sustain a force much larger than this in peacetime. But it enables Putin to claim victory because he has limited Kyiv’s forces.
The proposed cap on Ukraine’s armed forces highlights the delicate balance between security needs and post-war realities. Photo / Getty Images
5. The US, Nato, and European signatory states will provide Ukraine with ‘Article 5–like’ guarantees. Following points apply:
A) If Russia invades Ukraine, a co-ordinated military response will be launched, and all global sanctions against Russia will be reinstated
B) If Ukraine invades Russia or opens fire at Russian territory without provocation, the security guarantees will be considered void. If Russia opens fire on Ukraine, the security guarantees will come into effect
C) The US will receive compensation for providing security guarantees. (This provision has been removed)
D) Previously signed bilateral security agreements between Ukraine and around 30 countries will remain in place
Favours: Ukraine
As mentioned above, security guarantees are a win for Ukraine. While Nato membership has been taken off the table, Zelenskyy has secured these “Article 5-like” guarantees, which would mirror the Western alliance’s mutual defence clause.
There is no suggestion that Putin will accept this, given how much emphasis he put on keeping Ukraine out of Nato.
6. Russia will formalise its non-aggression stance towards Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws and documents, ratifying them by Russia’s State Duma
Favours: No single country
Again, Putin and Russia are not to be considered trustworthy when it comes to respecting international deals or even the country’s own constitution, which includes a law banning invasions of foreign countries.
7. Ukraine will become an EU member at a clearly designated time and will receive a short-term preferential access to the European market.
Favours: Ukraine
EU membership is seen as a key economic security guarantee for post-war Ukraine. Earlier versions of deals included a date by which Brussels would have to grant Kyiv membership.
That has been removed from the latest document after EU states argued that nothing that could only be decided among themselves could be agreed as part of a peace deal, even if beneficial for Ukraine.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives at the European Council summit with the President of the European Council António Costa. Photo / Getty Images
8. Ukraine will receive a global development package, detailed in a separate agreement, covering various economic areas:
A) A development fund will be created for investing in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.
B) The US and US companies will work with Ukraine to jointly invest in the restoration, modernisation, and operation of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities
C) Joint efforts will be made to rebuild war-torn areas, focusing on restoring and modernising cities and residential neighbourhoods
E) Extraction of minerals and natural resources will be expanded
F) The World Bank will provide a special funding package to support the acceleration of these efforts
A high-level working group will be established, including the appointment of a leading global financial expert as the prosperity administrator to oversee the implementation of the strategic recovery plan and future prosperity
Favours: Ukraine
In essence, Washington and US companies will have a large part to play in a bonanza of reconstruction projects – and the profits that potentially accrue from them.
Kyiv may be glad of American support in mining and its gas industry, but the devil will be in the detail: previous draft agreements have seen extremely onerous terms imposed on the host country, while the benefits flow to the US.
9. The creation of several funds to address the restoration of the Ukrainian economy, the reconstruction of damaged areas and regions, and humanitarian issues will be established. The aim is to mobilise US$800bn, the estimated cost of the damage from the Russian war
Favours: Ukraine
Estimates suggest it will cost Ukraine US$800 billion to reconstruct the country and repair any damage caused by the war. Securing language recognising these figures in an international deal is important to Ukraine and will keep its partners on the hook for the money, should they decide to divert funds after a ceasefire.
10. Ukraine will accelerate the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with the US
Favours: No single country
Donald Trump loves the idea of a deal. A trade deal would mean very little to Ukraine, but if the offer could win over the US President to push for more favourable terms in talks with Moscow, it would be a win for both sides.
11. Ukraine reaffirms its commitment to remaining a non-nuclear state, in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the Start I Treaty.
The Start 1 treaty limiting strategic nuclear weapons expired in 2009, so perhaps this is a typo. The US and Russia have both signalled they are ready to extend its replacement, the New Start treaty, which expires early next year.
12. Control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the restoration of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant
Favours: No single country
In essence, no agreement has been reached yet to settle the future ownership of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The US wants a three-way split, including itself, Russia and Ukraine, because the plant will remain in territory controlled by Moscow. Ukraine wants a 50-50 split with the US, but this will have to be settled during direct talks between leaders.
The future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a key sticking point
13. Ukraine and Russia will introduce school courses that promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures, fight racism and prejudice. Ukraine will approve EU rules on religious tolerance and minority language protection
Favours: Russia
An endorsement of Russia’s war goals. Ukraine will have to reverse some of the steps it has taken since the beginning of the war, to eradicate the Russian language and lessen the influence of its culture.
A reference to “Nazi ideology” comes straight out of the Kremlin copybook. Although it is unclear what this could mean in practice, it could have consequences for military units with roots in the far right, such as the Azov (which has gone some way to distance itself from that past).
14. In Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the line of military positions on the date of signing will be recognised as the de facto front line
A) To determine troop movements needed to end the war and set up potential “free economic zones,” with Russia withdrawing its troops from these areas
B) Russia must withdraw its troops from occupied parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts for the agreement to take effect
C) International forces will be placed along the front line to monitor the agreement’s implementation
d) The parties agree to follow the rules and obligations imposed by the 1949 Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, including universal human rights
The agreement proposed here is much softer, as it envisions a demilitarised zone that both Ukraine and Russia would withdraw their forces from. But ultimately, there is no real agreement here yet. Zelenskyy is pushing for his original idea that the future front line should be drawn where the fighting stops. But he has suggested he could withdraw troops as long as the idea is backed by a nationwide referendum.
A screen grab from a video shows the city as the Kremlin announced that Russian forces had taken control of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk region and Volchansk (Vovchansk) in the Kharkiv region. Photo / Getty Images
15. Russia and Ukraine commit to refraining from using force to alter territorial arrangements and will resolve any disputes through diplomatic means
Favours: No single country
Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment. Given that the security guarantees largely apply to Ukraine, this primarily serves as a warning not to attempt to snip back any portions of land conceded to Russia.
16. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial purposes. A separate maritime agreement will ensure freedom of navigation and transport, with the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit being demilitarised
Favours: No single country
Welcome – but Russia has previously agreed to these demands, then broken its word.
17. Establishment of a humanitarian committee that will ensure the following:
B) All detained civilians, including children and political prisoners, will be freed
C) Actions will be taken to address the problems and alleviate the suffering of conflict victims
Favours: Ukraine
Again, this is welcome – but Russia has previously agreed to these demands, then broken its word.
18. Ukraine must hold presidential elections as soon as possible after the deal is signed
Favours: Russia
Moscow has previously called for Ukraine to hold an election before it agrees to any peace deal. The thinking is that it could influence the vote to ensure a more pliable regime is elected – which would then strike a peace deal more favourable to Russia.
Kyiv would never hold an election in the middle of a war, so the demand was always a non-starter. But this timeframe suits Ukraine more than its enemy. Despite the corruption scandal he is currently engulfed in – and the difficult terms of this deal – it is not impossible that Zelenskyy would win any vote. That would enrage Putin, who started the war in part to unseat him.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo / Getty Images
19. The deal will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored by the Peace Council, chaired by Trump. Ukraine, Europe, Nato, Russia, and the US will be part of this process. Violations will lead to sanctions.
Favours: No single country
As in the Gaza peace plan, Trump promises to chair a board monitoring implementation of the deal. This is a difficult, time-consuming job – and Russia has years of experience in manipulating international observers of ceasefires (see the OCSE mission that followed the Minsk agreements).
20. The ceasefire will take effect immediately once all parties agree to the deal
Favours: Ukraine
Russia would have to retreat, presumably to behind the demilitarised zone in Donetsk. A slight bonus for Ukraine
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