Ukraine crisis editorial: Putin Europe on notice - instability is growing in the outside world

A soldier takes part in Belarusian and Russian joint military drills at Brestsky firing range, Belarus. Photo /Russian Defence Ministry via AP

Editorial

EDITORIAL

New Zealand's isolation during the pandemic has been a mixed blessing, offering more safety than most places in the world while feeling very cut off from it.

On a wet Waitangi weekend, its appeal as a bolthole seemed strong - and not because of the coronavirus.

The dangerous stand-off in Europe between Russia and Nato countries over Ukraine has drawn the world to the cliff edge of instability.

There's a lot riding on what happens next.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again testing other nations' resolve but this time has come up against a wall of resistance. How does it all get resolved?

Russia has sent tens of thousands of troops to its border with Ukraine and is taking part in military drills with Belarus, which shares a border with Nato nations Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

The Biden Administration, which has publicly been warning that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time, said on Sunday that at least 70 per cent of the military power Putin likely wants to be available is in place.

Putin has the option to push forward, but Kremlin officials have kept a potential out-clause, of denying an invasion is actually intended, in the president's back pocket.

US President Joe Biden has ordered additional forces to Poland and Romania. Ukraine receives US military support and training but is not a Nato member and Biden says he won't send troops to Ukraine to fight a war.

However, at issue is Russia's complaints of Nato and European Union encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence. A couple of Nato member countries now abut its borders. Should the former Soviet state of Ukraine - a huge country of 603,600sq km and 43 million people - join them, a long section of the Russian border would be exposed.

Nato did not intervene when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula eight years ago. Separatists then took over eastern areas of Ukraine.

This time the US has deployed what could be termed a strategy of maximum deterrence: organising with European allies, discussing Russia's troop movements in the media, and threatening counter military support and economic sanctions.

This will be of major interest to China, which the US has similarly tried to ring fence with a pressure campaign with the support of Indo-Pacific and European allies. Some observers see potential parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan.

One result of heightened tension between the US and China last year was increased military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.

Having left Afghanistan in a chaotic rush, the US has now been pulled into presenting a united front in Europe. And it has increased its activity in the Middle East: helping Syrian Kurdish forces battle Isis fighters and raiding a hideout of one of the group's leaders; while seeking Qatar's help to support the West with gas should Russia cut off energy supplies to Europe.

To add to the chaotic picture in Europe, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hold on the leadership of his party is looking shaky, in the wake of the lockdown "partygate" scandal.

Somehow, Biden and European leaders need to find a way to get Putin to pull back from the brink as a war in a country of Ukraine's size would be a catastrophe. French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting Moscow and Kyiv.

It's a long way away from New Zealand but the impacts would ripple outwards.