Now, suddenly, the fissure Putin has always yearned for is opening before his eyes.
The President of the United States has not only laid claim to the sovereign territory of a Nato ally, Denmark, but threatened to use force to get his way. On Saturday, Trump deliberately escalated the confrontation by ordering punitive tariffs against no fewer than eight allies, including Britain, for the offence of saying what should be common cause: that the future status of Greenland is a matter for the island’s inhabitants and the government of Denmark.
Trump went further still by sending a threatening message to another ally, Norway. In a leaked letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Store, Trump said that since he had been denied the Nobel Peace Prize he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be predominant”, adding that Denmark had no “right of ownership” over Greenland and that America’s “Complete and Total control” of the island was essential for global security.
Faced with looming American tariffs and constant threats, the EU is preparing to retaliate by invoking its “anti-coercion instrument” to impose €93 billion ($187b) of levies on US exports. This extraordinary measure, which has never been used before, is set to be deployed not against China or any other adversary, but against the superpower that has guaranteed Europe’s security for almost 80 years.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has so far declined to impose additional British tariffs on US exports, but the EU’s promised retribution shows the two sides are now doing their best to damage one another.
Putin can only sit back and enjoy the sight. And even if this quarrel is eventually resolved by some form of settlement between America and Europe over the future of Greenland – and, for all the sound and fury, that remains the most likely outcome – who will ever trust the United States to honour its Nato obligation to defend its European allies?
As Starmer said at Downing Street: “Alliances endure because they are built on respect and partnership, not pressure. The use of tariffs against allies is completely wrong.”
By heaping pressure on his friends – openly and boisterously – Trump has fundamentally undermined the Atlantic Alliance. Soviet leaders always knew that if they invaded any Nato ally, they would find themselves at war with America, a war they could not win. Peace itself depended on that belief. Why should Putin believe it now?
David Blair is the Daily Telegraph’s Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator.
Sign up to Herald Premium Editor’s Picks, delivered straight to your inbox every Friday. Editor-in-Chief Murray Kirkness picks the week’s best features, interviews and investigations. Sign up for Herald Premium here.