The path to power in the US House of Representatives winds through a few dozen districts, many of them suburban, in tomorrow's election.
Republicans are defending their majority and Democrats looking to gain 23 seats they would need to win control.
After the first polls close in the Eastern United States, the tallies will start revealing clues to where Americans stand in 2018 on immigration, guns, healthcare, gender equality in the #MeToo era.
They will also reveal who Americans want representing them in Washington during the next two years of Donald Trump's presidency.
Some races to watch for those keeping score, listed in order of poll-closing times:
KENTUCKY
The ruby-red state known for the Kentucky Derby and sweet bourbon is hosting one of the most competitive and expensive races in the country.
The Lexington-area battle pits third-term Republican Congressman Andy Barr against Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine fighter pilot. Trump won the 6th District by more than 15 percentage points in 2016. But with the help of carefully shaped campaign ads that went viral, McGrath holds the edge on campaign fundraising.
America is back on track. In the House, I’ve fought to cut taxes, defend our borders, and protect the lives of unborn children. Far left Amy McGrath threatens our shared Kentucky values. Watch my new ad now! #KY06 pic.twitter.com/swrBOgyCYh
— Andy Barr (@barrforcongress) October 31, 2018
Polls in the district close at Noon NZT.
GEORGIA
Red-hot Georgia is home to a House race that turns on issues of race and gun laws. Republican Congresswoman Karen Handel narrowly won her seat in a special election last year that set a record for spending. Now her Democratic challenger is Lucy McBath, a former flight attendant turned gun control activist. McBath's 17-year-old son, Jordan Davis, was killed by a white man at a service station in 2012 when the black teenager refused to lower the volume on the rap music in his car. The district north of Atlanta leans Republican, but Trump won it by only 1 percentage point.
#GA06:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 5, 2018
Lucy McBath (D) 46% (+2)
Karen Handel (R-inc) 44%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT 10/28-11/4https://t.co/Ge4Pm2ppHc
Polls close at 1pm.
VIRGINIA
Congressman Dave Brat won his seat after upsetting House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary. Now, it's Brat's turn to fight for re-election to the Richmond-area district against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer who is one of a record number of women running for Congress this year.
Ex-GOP senator endorses Virginia Democrat over incumbent Dave Brat https://t.co/dTq45kJQPI pic.twitter.com/bT6htzssLw
— The Hill (@thehill) November 2, 2018
Polls close at 1pm.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina's 9th District became a key election bellwether when the Rev Mark Harris narrowly ousted three-term Congressman Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary, giving Democrats a wider opening in solidly red territory. Democrats answered with Dan McCready, an Iraq War veteran, solar energy company founder and Harvard Business School graduate. Trump won the district by 12 points and a Democrat hasn't been elected to represent it since John F. Kennedy was president.
Dan McCready claims "I've not taken any money from Nancy Pelosi." Really, McCready? Pelosi spent $364,000 to support him & only 11% of his donations come from #NC09 🛑 Stop McCready & Pelosi from turning NC into New California by voting this election for @MarkHarrisNC9 pic.twitter.com/TAmY57nn70
— NC Values Coalition (@NCValues) November 2, 2018
When we started this race, few folks thought we stood a chance. But this campaign is built by the people here at home for the people here at home. I'm proud to stand with the people of Robeson County in our fight for better leadership in Washington. pic.twitter.com/qMnjl1LUOM
— Dan McCready (@McCreadyForNC) November 4, 2018
Polls close at 1.30pm.
OHIO
It's a rematch in central Ohio's 12th District between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor. Balderson won short-term control of the seat in August during a special election after Republican Pat Tiberi retired. Republicans in the district appear divided over the President, making the seat vulnerable to a Democrat who, like O'Connor, has supported some Republican ideas. He's engaged to a Republican who calls herself a "Dannycrat."
It’s been a beautiful day in Franklin County! Thank you to all of the volunteers who joined me to knock on doors in Worthington! #OH12 pic.twitter.com/5zlNt0pQaj
— Troy Balderson (@Troy_Balderson) November 4, 2018
Great moment from last night's @whiznewscom forum -- @dannyoconnor1 calls out @Troy_Balderson for opposing Medicaid expansion:
— Ohio Dems (@OHDems) November 2, 2018
"If they don't have Medicaid where are they going to go?"#OHDEMS #OH12 pic.twitter.com/DOGeP6qf1v
Polls close at 1.30pm.
FLORIDA
National Republicans and Democrats are pouring major resources into the Miami-area 27th District seat, held since 1989 by retiring Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The Democratic nominee , former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala, has ramped up her Spanish-language advertising and Hillary Clinton campaigned for her. But she's facing a stiff challenge from her Republican opponent, Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American and former broadcast journalist who, unlike Shalala, speaks Spanish. Though Trump won Florida in 2016, Clinton won this congressional district by nearly 20 points.
Alex Rodriguez appears to be going to bat for Florida Congressional candidate Donna Shalala https://t.co/X5EtLudtI6
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 4, 2018
We must take care of our seniors! As your Congresswoman, I will work so they enter their golden years with the dignity, care, and support they so greatly deserve. Ensuring their quality of life will always be one of my highest priorities!#MariaElviraSalazarForCongress pic.twitter.com/hokA5s7Jez
— Maria Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 (@MaElviraSalazar) October 30, 2018
Polls close at 2pm.
NEW JERSEY
Along with California and Pennsylvania, suburb-filled New Jersey is a key battleground for House control. Two seats are open, vacated by veteran Republican congressmen Frank LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, and could fall to the Democrats.
Keep a close eye on the 3rd District south of Trenton, which twice voted for President Barack Obama but went for Trump by about 6 percentage points. Fighting for re-election is Republican Congressman Tom MacArthur, who helped strike a deal that pushed the GOP's "Obamacare" repeal bill to House passage (it failed in the Senate). His Democratic opponent is political newcomer Andy Kim, a National Security Council staffer under Obama who has worked in Afghanistan.
Andy Kim is vying to be the first Democrat of Korean descent elected to Congress. https://t.co/gnEA8McwnL
— HuffPost Asian Voices (@HPAsianVoices) October 30, 2018
His seat at risk, U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur tries to thread the Trump needle in tense race vs. Democrat Andy Kim in N.J. https://t.co/ijBYPwVcpu
— Amy S. Rosenberg (@amysrosenberg) November 2, 2018
Polls close 2pm.
PENNSYLVANIA
Democrats have particular reason to believe they can flip as many as six seats in the Keystone state. A state Supreme Court decision in January threw out 6-year-old congressional district boundaries as unconstitutionally drawn to benefit Republicans. The replacement districts approved by the court's Democratic majority have created more competitive contests.
One key race is playing out in the Philadelphia suburbs. Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, has a centrist voting record and has explicitly tried to put distance between himself and Trump. He's facing Scott Wallace, a longtime Democratic Party donor who was co-chairman of the Wallace Global Fund, a Washington, DC-based organisation that supports liberal social movements. He's heavily funding his campaign and outspent Fitzpatrick nearly 5-to-1 in the July-September quarter.
Democrat Scott Wallace on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's difficulty dealing w/ Trump: “To me it is like trying to straddle a fence, one foot on one side of the fence and one on the other. And from a guy point of view, that is a good way to hurt yourself." https://t.co/DuyP9TjVh8
— Dan Merica (@merica) November 5, 2018
Polls close at 2pm.
KANSAS
Trump and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi loom large over a race in Northeastern Kansas. That's where Democrat Paul Davis, the former state House minority leader, and Republican Steve Watkins, an Army veteran and engineer, are battling for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic congresswoman Lynn Jenkins. Davis has said he would not support Pelosi for speaker if Democrats win the House. And Republicans were hoping that Trump's visit to Topeka last month would boost Watkins, who has faced questions over claims he made about his qualifications and background.
Steve Watkins, GOP candidate for Congress, confronts allegations of sexual misconduct #ksleghttps://t.co/ly5TPn4QRh
— CJOnline (@CJOnline) October 27, 2018
Steve Watkins will lead the fight to cut taxes and spending in Congress, while sleazy @PaulDavisKS voted repeatedly for higher taxes and fees. He is the wrong person to represent #KS02 in Congress. pic.twitter.com/wOiFzyMYXC
— Congressional Leadership Fund (@CLFSuperPAC) November 5, 2018
Polls close 3pm.
MINNESOTA
Four House seats could flip from one party to the other in this traditionally Democratic stronghold. For evidence of Democratic gains, look to the state's booming suburbs. Clinton won Minnesota's 3rd District west of Minnesota by 9 percentage points. GOP congressman Erik Paulsen is under heavy pressure from Democrat Dean Phillips there. Paulsen avoided Trump's recent rally in Rochester and his rally this summer in Duluth, and he has said he wrote in Marco Rubio's name in the 2016 election. Still, Trump endorsed Paulsen last month.
In ad-drenched Third District race, Erik Paulsen and Dean Phillips end on positive note. https://t.co/LatDOE1abz #MNCD3 pic.twitter.com/wuVzTdcqHs
— Star Tribune (@StarTribune) November 3, 2018
Polls close 3pm.
NEW MEXICO
The open 2nd District seat left open by Republican congressman Steve Pearce, who is running for governor, offers a look at how the parties fare along the border with Mexico, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Pearce attracted support from Hispanics and the region's oil and gas interests. But the race between Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and GOP opponent Yyvette Herrell has focused on hot-button issues such as immigration and guns. Torres Small has raised more than five times the campaign cash drawn by Herrell.
NM 02 poll (ABQ Journal/Research & Polling Inc): Yvette Herrell (R) 46, Xochitl Torres Small (D) 45. Dems won this seat in '08, Repubs won it right back in '10 - https://t.co/HU2VAMKBNo
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) November 4, 2018
Polls close 3pm.
NEW YORK
This deep-blue state offers a look at how race and Trump's clout are playing out in the President's home state.
North of New York City in the 19th District, an ad released last month by the Republican National Congressional Committee showed clips of Democrat Antonio Delgado performing songs from his 2006 rap album under his stage name, A.D. The Voice. Delgado, a Rhodes scholar and Harvard Law School graduate, said his opponent, congressman John Faso, was using racial attacks to alienate him, a black first-time candidate in a district that is more than 90 per cent white. Voters there are evenly split among Democrats, Republicans and independents, and went twice for Obama but favoured Trump.
And in the Buffalo-area's 22nd District, first-term congresswoman Claudia Tenney, an early Trump supporter, is drawing comparisons to the President by brashly suggesting some people who commit mass murders are Democrats and promoting a petition to lock up Clinton. But in a close race against Democrat Anthony Brindisi, she's shifted to a softer tone of bipartisanship. Brindisi, a state assemblyman, argues that Tenney's hyper-partisan approach undermines her claim of working across the aisle. Trump beat Clinton by nearly 16 percentage points here.
I'll be voting for Antonio Delgado in #NY19 tomorrow and you should, too. @DelgadoforNY19 pic.twitter.com/ImFguvbakw
— Mark Ruffalo (@MarkRuffalo) November 5, 2018
I need @claudiatenney of #NY22 to be re-elected in order to get our big plans moving. Her opponent would be a disaster. Nobody works harder than Claudia, and she is a producer. I look forward to working together with her - she has my Strongest Endorsement! Vote Claudia!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2018
Pretty sure Claudia Tenney (NY-22) is the weakest Republican incumbent we've polled. Trump approval +15 in this Trump+16 CD with an R+12 party ID sample.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2018
Yet it's a dead-heat as we approach 400 https://t.co/61Q0mgtfM7
Polls close 3pm.
IOWA
One Iowa race offers a test of whether a Trump-style advocate for immigration limits can win.
Republican congressman Steve King is keeping a low profile in his bid for a ninth House term, his success suddenly in question after he was engulfed in controversy for his support of white nationalists. But Democrats, already hoping to flip two other seats among Iowa's four-person delegation, have a tough road to success in the 4th District that voted for Trump by 27 percentage points. In an unusual move, the GOP's campaign chief condemned King the week before the election, but it's unclear whether the criticism will boost his Democratic opponent, J.D. Scholten.
The DOJ is sending election monitors to IA county in King's district with 26% Hispanic pop. Sessions says monitors nationwide "protect the rights of millions of Americans to cast their vote unimpeded.'' Who exactly is being protected? https://t.co/CuZbgYeobx via @DMRegister
— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 5, 2018
Polls close 4pm.
CALIFORNIA
Democrats have targeted a string of Republican-held districts in California that carried Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
One such battleground in the nation's fruit-and-nut basket, the Central Valley, is where Republican Jeff Denham is trying to keep Democrat Josh Harder from taking his job. Fallout from Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation
hearings and fights over healthcare and immigration have produced a toss-up race where Democrats count a slender registration edge. Denham, a centrist who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, won re-election by 3 percentage points in 2016, while Clinton won the district with about 49 percent of the vote.
In another test of GOP clout in a rapidly diversifying district, congressman Dana Rohrabacher's re-election is in question for the first time in 30 years. A wave of new and more diverse residents and divisions over Trump and the #MeToo movement against sexual misconduct have produced a strong challenge from Democrat Harley Rouda. The district went to Clinton in the 2016 presidential contest.
Dana Rohrabacher, once dubbed "Putin's favorite congressman," tries to defend his seat https://t.co/pNghx2t1Z4 pic.twitter.com/jXpLu8NtsB
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 5, 2018
Polls close at 5pm.
WASHINGTON STATE
Southwest Washington's 3rd District offers a test of whether the tea party-driven GOP House takeover in 2010 survives. Republican congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler, first elected that year and twice re-elected with more than 60 per cent of the vote, has been out-raised in campaign funding by Democrat Carolyn Long. Herrera Beutler has broken with her party on such issues as healthcare. But Long has emphasised her credentials as an outsider. The district stretching east along the Oregon border voted for Trump by 7 percentage points.
Democrat Carolyn Long is running against history in her bid to unseat Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. Only once in at least the last 70 years has a challenger defeated a 3rd Congressional District incumbent.
— The Chronicle (@chronline) October 31, 2018
More on the race: https://t.co/Etc2PlKq6Z pic.twitter.com/bLG268LjtA
Polls close at 5pm.
- AP
Twenty-seven locations in Kyiv were hit, including residential buildings.