There are other signs of trouble. A key measure of underlying inflation rose over the northern summer as Trump’s tariffs put pressure on prices, driving up the costs of things like furniture, appliances and clothing. Manufacturing activity has been shrinking for six months.
It’s not clear right now just what will happen to the economy between now and next year’s Midterm elections.
And Friday’s news might deliver an upside for Trump: The darkening labour market could mean that he gets his long-sought cut to the interest rate.
But what is clear, right now at least, is that the US President has a problem.
A recent Gallup poll found that his approval rating on the economy fell to 37% in August, from 42% in February. That’s a steep drop from his average approval rating on the economy during his first term, which was 52%.
When you dig into specific issues, it doesn’t look any better.
A poll late last month by the Economist and YouGov found inflation to be the top ranked issue for voters — and just 34% of them approved of his handling of the issue, according to the poll.
And then there’s the vibe — the feeling of malaise that weighed down President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris last northern autumn.
Last month, 63% of Americans thought the economy is getting worse, Gallup found — 1 point higher than the 62% who believed that in October 2024, right before the election.
Democrats are seizing the moment as an inflection point, eager to hammer home to voters what Trump has done to make the economy his own as they attempt to wrest control of Congress from Republicans next year.
Trump passed expansive tax cuts into law and implemented steep tariffs that have driven up prices of everyday goods and raw materials.
He is also trying to exert more control over the historically independent Federal Reserve.
“The American people are feeling the impact of the Trump Administration’s dangerous one-man command policies in community after community,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, said in a statement. He added that Trump and Republicans had promised to lower the cost-of-living but failed.
Democrats have been struggling to unify around how to hit back at Trump, but many have taken a key lesson from their walloping loss in the 2024 elections.
They believe a laser focus on the economy can help them win in tough races next year.
Voters rated the economy as their top issue in every one of the New York Times and Siena College’s preelection polls last year, and exit polls showed that Trump outperformed Harris among those who believed the economy was in poor shape.
Trump’s White House defended its handling of the economy. Republicans say the Midterms are a lifetime away, and that Trump will be able to shape what voters care about no matter what happens.
“Will the economy always be top of voters’ minds? Yes. But did voters care as much about trade, immigration or crime pre-Trump as they do now? No, and that’s because Trump has made people care about things he thinks are important,” said Bill Stepien, a Republican who managed the President’s re-election campaign in 2020.
“So don’t assume President Trump will be reacting to any issue next November, because he will be trying to drive the discussion in his direction,” Stepien added.
Indeed, Trump is already working hard to make sure the Midterms are about anything other than the economy.
He has openly said that he believes his crackdown on crime in Washington — which he has said he intends to expand to cities like Chicago and perhaps New Orleans — will play well for him next year.
“I think it’s going to be a big, big subject for the Midterms,” he said last week, referring to the issue of crime. “And I think the Republicans are going to do really well.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Jess Bidgood
©2025 THE NEW YORK TIMES
