Putin ordered a partial military mobilisation in October 2022, meaning anyone who had been in the military or was signed up for military reserves could be forcibly mobilised, Mutch said.
But this was done in a way that minimised political problems by targeting people away from the major cities of Moscow and St Petersburg, Mutch said.
“The worry is after this ‘election’ happens - and there is going to be no flashpoint for popular discontent with the regime like there was in Belarus - he could call to mobilise the entire population.
“This would be politically unpopular, but he may feel that now he has sufficient control of the country, with anybody who was a potential opposition figure either dead or in jail.”
Mutch said this could feed millions of men into the Russian army and it could then eventually overwhelm Ukraine simply via sheer strength of numbers.
It comes as this weekend marks two years since Russia launched its military invasion of Ukraine. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins marked the occasion by announcing further support and sanctions.
This support, worth $25.9 million, will bring the total value of New Zealand’s assistance pledged to more than $100m.
The deployment of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel has been extended until June 2025.
Up to 97 personnel will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers and provide intelligence, liaison and logistics support.
That support is just a thin glimmer of hope for Ukraine. Mutch said an issue with getting more aid and military support into the country to fight off Russia has become an ongoing issue, one that could mean the end of their offensive strategy.
“[The] European Union aid was held up for a long time when Hungary was vetoing it. And of course, right-wing Republicans in the US Congress are still blocking that $60 billion aid package Ukraine was really counting on and relying on to survive throughout 2024.
“It doesn’t mean that things are about to collapse or that all Ukrainians necessarily want to start fighting, but there is a recognition now that they might have to change strategy to a more defensive approach, and people are starting to lose hope that they are going to sort of reconquer all of Ukraine’s lost land.”
Listen to the full episode to hear more from Tom Mutch about what it’s like on the ground in Ukraine after two years of war.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. This episode was presented by Georgina Campbell, a Wellington-based reporter who has a particular interest in local government, transport, and seismic issues. She joined the Herald in 2019 after working as a broadcast journalist.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
