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Home / World

Race to the White House: Trump campaign claims Biden will 'steal' victory after election night

By Sam Clench
news.com.au·
1 Nov, 2020 08:42 PM5 mins to read

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Mr Trump has been suggesting there is something improper about election officials continuing to count the votes after election night. Photo / File

Mr Trump has been suggesting there is something improper about election officials continuing to count the votes after election night. Photo / File

Opinion

The Trump campaign has doubled down on the President's claims that continuing to count votes after election night would be illegitimate, predicting the Democrats will use delays in the count to "steal the election".

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, was a guest on ABC News' This Week programme.

Most of the interview on the show involved Miller explaining why the campaign is feeling good about Donald Trump's chances heading into election day.

"If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electors, somewhere in that range. And they're just going to try to steal it back after the election," said Miller.

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"We believe we'll be over 290 electoral votes on election night. So no matter what they try to do, what kind of hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we're still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump re-elected."

Trump adviser Jason Miller: "If you speak with many smart Dems, they believe that Trump will be ahead on election night ... and then [Dems will] try to steal it back after the election."

(Stephanopoulos does not challenge Miller that counting all ballots ≠ "stealing.") pic.twitter.com/FMApbmVlRa

— The Recount (@therecount) November 1, 2020

Miller's rhetoric echoes the President's in recent days. Trump has been suggesting there is something improper about election officials continuing to count the votes after election night.

"It would be very, very proper and nice if a winner were declared on November 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don't believe that that's by our laws. I don't believe that," Trump said a few days ago.

"Hopefully the few states remaining that want to take a lot of time after November 3 to count ballots, that won't be allowed by the various courts."

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The vote count always proceeds after election night, and it is going to be no different this year. There's nothing unusual about it.

Under the law, each state has until December 8 to finish its count and certify the results.

The one unique factor this time is the massive surge in mail voting due to the coronavirus pandemic, with many Americans concerned that voting in person would expose them to the disease.

Rules around early voting vary from state to state – some allow election officials to start counting mail-in ballots ahead of time, while others make them wait until the polls close.

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The latter group includes several crucial swing states, most notably those in the Rust Belt – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And that could lead to a delay in some of the final results being known.

Keep in mind that the early vote is expected to overwhelmingly favour Joe Biden, and the in-person vote on election day is expected to favour Trump by the same sort of margin.

We know this from the polling, which has been breaking down the candidates' levels of support from each group. Biden gets about two-thirds support from early voters, and Trump gets about two-thirds support from election-day voters.

So, we come to the scenario that Miller and Trump are quite obviously anticipating.

Under this scenario, those Rust Belt states do not finish counting their votes on election night. And the results we do get from them early on are disproportionately from ballots cast on election day, meaning they show Trump in the lead.

Over the next couple of days, officials finish counting the votes, gradually working their way through the deluge of mail-in ballots. When that process is complete, Biden is declared the winner.

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Miller is implying that counting the remaining votes after election night – i.e. election officials literally doing their job – will somehow constitute the Democrats "stealing back" the election.

Be wary of this as the results roll in. When Miller says the Trump campaign expects to be "over 290 electoral votes" on the night, what he's actually describing is a scenario in which neither candidate reaches the 270-vote threshold, and several states remain undecided with Trump provisionally ahead.

Miller's comments drew criticism from, among others, the Republican Lieutenant Governor of Utah, Spencer Cox.

"Guys, please ignore this type of garbage," Cox said.

"The truth is that elections are never decided on election night. In Utah (and most states) it takes two weeks to finalise counting and certify results.

"It really doesn't matter who is ahead on election night, it only matters when every eligible vote is counted and each county canvasses and certifies the vote totals.

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"Yes it's true that when a race isn't close the media may 'call' the race, and candidates may concede or declare custody, but such actions are technically meaningless."

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