An Israeli soldier climbs out of an armoured vehicle at a staging area just inside Israel, along the border with Gaza on October 11. Photo / David Guttenfelder, The New York Times
The fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that came into force last week rests on some key assumptions: that Hamas militants give up their weapons and that an international troop presence keep the peace as Israel withdraws its military from the enclave.
However, the countries that might make up that force are skittish about committing soldiers who could potentially come into direct conflict with Hamas while it is still an armed group, diplomats and other people familiar with the deliberations say.
United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, which led to an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and an exchange of hostages for prisoners and detainees, envisioned the immediate deployment of a “temporary International Stabilisation Force” in Gaza.
The idea was for the international corps to secure areas where Israeli troops have withdrawn, prevent munitions from entering the territory, facilitate the distribution of aid and train a Palestinian police force.
The creation and deployment of an international force in Gaza could determine whether the current ceasefire has a chance to evolve into a lasting agreement, and whether Israelis and Palestinians move toward the broader aim of a durable peace.
Diplomats and other officials from several countries who are familiar with the situation say there has been little progress on when the force might be assembled because of confusion over the force’s mission, which appears to be the most serious stumbling block.
Representatives from several countries seen as likely participants have said privately they will not commit troops until there is more clarity about what the force will be expected to do once it arrives in Gaza, according to two diplomats briefed on the discussions in recent days.
Their main concern is that their troops should not be expected to fight Hamas militants, some of whom remain heavily armed, on Israel’s behalf.
For several of the countries, that prospect alone would be reason enough to back out, the officials said.
Some of the countries have also indicated in private discussions that they do not want their troops to be in the centres of Gaza’s cities, because of the danger posed there by Hamas and its tunnel networks, according to discussions with people familiar with the talks.
All of the people spoke on condition of anonymity, and insisted that the reluctant countries not be identified, to discuss the sensitive discussions.
An eruption of violence in Gaza on Monday underscored those concerns.
An attack by Palestinian militants in Israeli-held territory killed two Israeli soldiers, according to the Israeli military. Israel responded with a punishing bombardment of what it described as Hamas installations, which killed 45 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties.
Under the Biden administration, preliminary efforts were made to form a force including personnel from Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Italy, according to Jamie Rubin, who served as an adviser to Antony Blinken, the secretary of state at the time, and helped develop a plan for post-war governance in Gaza.
Recent discussions have included Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, according to two diplomats.
Mediators who negotiated the current ceasefire are eager to get an international force into Gaza quickly to stabilise the area before Hamas consolidates its power in the roughly half of Gaza that Israel has ceded so far.
A Turkish government statement stated that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had said Turkey would join a task force that it described as overseeing the ceasefire.
It was unclear whether he was referring directly to the stabilisation force. Some in Israel’s leadership are likely to be sceptical about Turkey playing a leading role in Gaza given that Erdogan has repeatedly condemned Israel during the past two years.
President Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia said during a speech at the United Nations last month that his country was ready to deploy 20,000 or more troops to “help secure peace in Gaza” and other war zones.
Uncertainty about who would be responsible for security in Gaza, could leave parts of the enclave without any military presence to counter Hamas for weeks, if not months.
The situation has produced some difficult contradictions as diplomats try to move forward with plans for the region.
Without such a force and government, diplomats said, Gaza could be left with Hamas as the only governing authority.
Moreover, Israel’s military is unlikely to withdraw further — a key inducement for Hamas to accept the Trump plan — until an international force is ready to take its place.
Much depends, however, on whether Hamas gives up its weapons — which its leaders have been reluctant to do thus far.
Asked about how Hamas would disarm, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and one of the architects of the ceasefire told CBS last week: “So in order for that to occur, we need to create the international stabilisation force and then the international stabilisation force needs to create a local Palestinian government.”
Analysts say Arab states would be unlikely to deploy soldiers in Gaza if they feared they could be drawn into clashes with armed Hamas gunmen resisting their presence, and also if their participation was not connected to a pathway to Palestinian statehood — which Israel’s Government opposes.
“Getting militarily involved in Gaza is politically risky for Arab countries,” said Ghaith al-Omari, an expert on Palestinian affairs and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Middle East-focused think-tank in Washington.
“They don’t want to come in and be seen as doing Israel’s dirty work. So they need a Palestinian invitation and the UN Security Council mandate.”
He added, “They also don’t want their contribution to be merely coming to secure a ceasefire that doesn’t lead to ending the Israeli occupation.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has suggested that Israel would act to disarm Hamas “the hard way” if the Palestinian militants refused to do so on their own.
The idea of an international peacekeeping force in Gaza has been under discussion since soon after Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023, and Israel began its two-year military response.
Various proposals from France, the US and others have suggested that such a force would be needed quickly after the fighting between Israel and Hamas ended.
Discussions are also under way about the establishment of a separate, Palestinian police force that might operate in the urban areas of Gaza.
The Palestinian Authority, which runs a large police force in the West Bank, would seem a natural candidate, except for the opposition of Israel.
Netanyahu, who has long sought to prevent both the West Bank and Gaza from winding up under the control of the same Palestinian entity, has firmly rejected any meaningful involvement of the authority in Gaza.
When his Cabinet outlined its terms for ending the war in August, it included an explicit statement that the Palestinian Authority would not govern Gaza.
And even Palestinian officials say the authority’s reassertion of control in Gaza — from which it was ejected by Hamas in a 2007 civil war — would likely require careful planning and further training for its security forces.
Mohammad Mustafa, the Palestinian Authority’s prime minister, told reporters that Egypt and Jordan were providing training to some of the authority’s officers and that the authority would “gradually operate” in Gaza after the war.
Asked when that might happen, he did not provide a timeline.
“War did stop but a lot of arrangements still are not in place,” Mustafa conceded at a news conference in the West Bank city of Ramallah. “On governance, on security, on logistics.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Adam Rasgon, Michael D. Shear, David M. Halbfinger, Aaron Boxerman and Natan Odenheimer
Photographs by: David Guttenfelder, Saher Alghorra, Laura Boushnak
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