A confidential CIA analysis this week concludes that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship.
Sources familiar with the document said the finding appeared to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the US intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retained significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense US and Israeli bombardment.
Iran retained about 75% of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a US official said, adding that there was evidence that the regime had been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities.
Trump painted a rosier picture in Oval Office remarks on Wednesday, saying of Iran: “Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
Asked for comment, a senior US intelligence official emphasised the blockade’s impact, saying: “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding.
“What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering – starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
Trump, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials have consistently presented the war as an overwhelming US military victory, despite Iran’s rejection of Washington’s demands that it abandon nuclear enrichment, surrender its uranium stockpiles, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and take other steps.
Trump called the blockade “unbelievable” on Wednesday, saying: “The Navy has been incredible. The job they did … it’s like a wall of steel. Nobody goes through."
A day prior, he said Iran’s economy “is crashing”, its currency “worthless”, and it “can’t pay” its troops.
But Iran has proved resilient, despite losing its supreme leader and many other top officials to missile strikes, as well as much of its military hardware.
One of the US officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship was in fact far greater than the CIA estimate, saying: “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance.
“Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
- The Washington Post
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