It’s a Catch 22 that millions caught in conflict have faced over the ages but there are no easy answers. So much depends on family responsibilities, physical and financial means and, perhaps most of all, luck.
The decision starts with the “agony of what you will leave behind”, says Ihab Rabie, 45, displaced from northern Gaza to Gaza City earlier in the war.
“Your home, your street, your neighbours and your friends.
“Then there are practical questions, given the lack of employment and funds. Questions about transportation costs, the mechanism of displacement, and the place you will go to begin.
“Is there even a place? Can you afford it? Is there a water source or basic necessities?”
Cogat, the Israeli military body responsible for Gaza, this week estimated 100,000 people had evacuated Gaza City since Israel announced its imminent “takeover” in August.
It blames threats to the population by Hamas for many not leaving, but those in the city say the issues they face are more basic.
Prices of everything from tarpaulins and wood to make tents, to fuel for transport and food has soared in recent months, putting the cost of moving beyond many.
To move a family from Gaza City to the south with their luggage costs 1500-2000 shekels ($800-$1000), say local reporters. A litre of petrol is 500 shekels ($250) and a litre of diesel is 150 shekels ($75).
“If you decide to move, the concern becomes finding shelter, which is a tent, and setting it up,” said Rabie.
“The price has now reached US$600 ($1000) or more, or we turn to the second option of building a tent from wood and tarpaulin. But the prices are astronomical. If I wanted to build a tent for my family of nine in an 18sqm tent, I would need approximately US$400 or more.”
For the old, infirm, and many injured in Gaza City, the decision is harder still.
Leaders of Gaza’s Christian community said in a joint statement on August 26 that displacement would amount to “a death sentence” for many of those sheltering in its churches and pledged to stay.
“Among those who have sought shelter within the walls of the compounds, many are weakened and malnourished due to the hardships of the last months,” the patriarchs wrote.
“For this reason, the clergy and nuns have decided to remain and continue to care for all those who will be in the compounds.”
Rabab Muqat, 36, from Gaza City, has a motor disability and is wheelchair bound.
She and her family have survived two previous assaults on the city and think it safer to stay than move, even though she has a 5-year-old daughter and older son. During air strikes she takes shelter by “sitting next to the wall, away from the window and on the ground”.
“We cannot move to the southern regions. It’s a faraway area, one I’ve never been to before,” she told the Telegraph this week.
“Moving is expensive, and displacement is costly and exhausting. This is what our relatives told us.
“They spent all their money on repeated displacement and couldn’t find anything to eat. We cannot bear those difficult costs, and I cannot move. So I will stay in Gaza City, as I did before.”
Cogat says it is preparing new safe zones for refugees in the south and aims to allow humanitarian organisations to bring in 100,000 tents over the next few weeks.
The provision of tents has previously been restricted because Israel classifies alloy tent poles as a “dual use” item – something that Hamas could use to make weapons.
Despite greater amounts of aid now flowing into Gaza following the official declaration of famine in parts of the Strip in late August, resources remain scarce and the fear of moving is acute, much of it based on previous experience.
Jawaher Al-Najjar, 50, from Gaza City, temporarily moved south in October 2023 to a designated safe zone in Rafah but her eldest son died.
“I was displaced for the safety of my five children, but I promised myself that I would never be displaced again, even if it cost me my life,” she said.
“Now, the Army is asking the residents of Gaza City to move again. I will not do that. I will not repeat that terrible experience again.”
Others have moved out of Gaza City only to regret it.
Raed Bakr, 45, recently headed south with his family of 10, thinking that moving early would give him more chance of finding space and protecting his children.
“I was forced to put up my tent on the beach of Khan Younis but the sea flooded all the tents, including mine,” he said.
“I moved because of my children, who had experienced siege and hunger during the military operation in Gaza almost a year ago. I wanted to save them this time, but I regret it. The cost of displacement is very high, and there is no safe place here.”
Yet the dangers of remaining in Gaza City are enormous. The IDF has been pushing in gradually from the outskirts and now says it controls some 40% of the area.
There are near constant explosions and gunfire, and people are daily being reported killed, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Israeli forces killed about 44 people across Gaza last Friday local time, with at least seven children said to have died in attacks on Gaza City.
Video of the tower block coming down on Friday shows its rubble engulfing hundreds of adjacent tents as it falls.
The IDF claimed ample warnings were given and it was being used by Hamas as infrastructure.
Arej Ahmed, a 50-year-old displaced Palestinian who lives in a tent in the south-west of Gaza City, told AFP that her husband “saw residents of the Mushtaha Tower throwing their belongings from the upper floors to take them and flee before the strike”.
“Less than half an hour after the evacuation orders, the tower was bombed,” she said.
Whether dramatic incidents like these will convince the city’s residents to leave remains to be seen.
“The greatest fear remains that if I overcome all these obstacles, I will be displaced again and again,” Rabie told the Telegraph.
“Will the place I chose be at risk in the coming months? Will it be safe or not? No one knows.”
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