URI, INDIA - MAY 9: A residential house destroyed by artillery shelling allegedly carried out by Pakistani forces in the town of Uri, near the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border separating Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistani-administered Kashmir on May 9, 2025 in Srinagar, India. Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following India's May 7 missile strikes on Pakistan-controlled territory, which killed at least 31 people and were carried out in response to an earlier militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that India blames on Pakistan. Both sides have since exchanged deadly cross-border fire, expelled diplomats, and suspended trade, while international actors urge restraint to prevent the conflict from spiraling further (Photo by Yawar Nazir/Getty Images)
Fighting between India and Pakistan may be on hold for now, but long-term concerns remain about stability in the region.
The two countries reached a ceasefire deal after weeks of tensions, sparked by the killing of 27 people in the disputed territory of Kashmir.
Last week, India targeted several Pakistani sites with drones, sparking retaliation by Pakistan.
A US-brokered ceasefire deal was announced over the weekend, which has paused fighting for now.
University of Auckland Associate Professor of Global Studies Chris Ogden told The Front Page that he does not believe the conflict is finished.
" I think it’s very easy for these tensions to kind of blow up again.
“If the leaders do meet, and this has happened in the aftermath of every other kind of configuration or conflict, to see what they’re able to negotiate, because India is definitely much stronger than it ever has been relative to Pakistan in terms of the exceptionally long term.
“It’s very difficult to determine that primarily because parties such as the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party], the ruling party at the moment in India, are super Hindu nationalists.
“It is one of their aims to regain Kashmir, and it is possible to think of scenarios in the future where they would try to militarily gain Kashmir.”
The territory has been disputed for 70 years since the formation of India and Pakistan, and Ogden said the status quo has not changed much in that time, which also gives hope things won’t spill over into full conflict.
For the Kashmir people though, Ogden said that their thoughts are often ignored when these conflicts arise.
“Most Kashmiris in most polls, consistently across time, would like some kind of plebiscite or referendum, which would give them the right to choose their future, including their own self-determination.”
As for New Zealand, which is negotiating a trade deal at the moment with India, Ogden said that India views the dispute as internal and is not interested in foreign powers weighing in.
And it means any sort of trade deal would need to focus solely on the trade side of things.
" I think when it starts to move into politics, human rights, treatment of minorities, those sensitivities, the Indians will definitely push them back and remove them from negotiation.
“In terms of a conflict, I don’t think India will be looking to anybody in terms of, say, international support or justification.
“So in many senses, that would leave possibilities for New Zealand in terms of probably what most other countries are doing at the moment; asking for restraint, pointing out the regional ramifications, pointing out the ramifications potentially in terms of trade and how that might affect other countries.”
Listen to the full episode for more on the history of the conflict, how this ceasefire came about, and India’s growing presence on the world stage.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Authorities have described the spot as unsafe for swimming because of bacteria levels.