NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / World

How a Donald Trump win in US election could spark world instability

By Candace Sutton
news.com.au·
31 Oct, 2020 03:27 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

During a rally in Waterford, Michigan Trump claimed ‘You know, our doctors get more money if somebody dies from Covid’. Video / Donald Trump via Facebook

A professor has shared a bleak picture of what the world could look like if Donald Trump wins a second term as US President.

Experts are divided over what US election result could bring stability back to America, with fears either result could have dangerous implications for the world.

A Trump win could mean world disorder as the inward-looking President's administration means the end of the United States' stabilising global leadership, the professor fears.

That is the opinion of Eliot A. Cohen, dean of Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, who predicts a second Trump term could spark the "chaos" of the world a century ago.

Supporters of President Donald Trump attend a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo / Getty Images
Supporters of President Donald Trump attend a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo / Getty Images
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Writing in foreignaffairs.com, Cohen - who worked for the Department of State under Republican Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - said a second Trump win would "permanently tarnish the United States' reputation for stability and predictability" and forever change people's perception about the United States.

"Since its inception, the country has been the land of the future, a work in progress, a place of promise no matter its flaws and tribulations," Cohen writes.

"With a second Trump term, the United States might as well be understood as a monument to the past … a vast power in decline whose time has come and gone.

"A second election would signal either that the system is fundamentally flawed or that the United States has undergone some kind of moral collapse.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Its days as a world leader would be over.

"The country that had built international institutions, that had affirmed the basic values of liberty and the rule of law, and that had stood by allies would be gone.

"A Trump victory would mark a sea change for the United States' relationship with the rest of the world.

This isn't the first time the professor has spoken out against Trump. After he won in 2016, Cohen wrote about being a "Never Trumper" and a year later wrote about his dislike of the president as a person.

Discover more

Lifestyle

First Lady's rally appearance sparks fresh round of 'fake Melania' claims

31 Oct 01:58 AM
World

US leaders facing second wave resist steps to curb virus

31 Oct 01:07 AM
World

'Preparatory measure': Madame Tussauds throws Donald Trump in the dumpster

31 Oct 12:59 AM

But Cohen's piece has been criticised, with claims that regardless of who wins the election America faces challenges as a super power.

"What needs to be realised is that US global power is failing and that is an empirical process over several years regardless of which one of the two main parties own the White House – or the Congress for that matter," Finian Cunningham writes in RT in response to Cohen's piece.

Former German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel said the US election could have wider implications for the world if there is a bitter legal fight over the result.

"No institution is more fundamental to the West's wider appeal than free and fair elections," he wrote in The Strategist.

"If the former de facto leader of the West can no longer manage to uphold even this principle, the rest of the world may well opt for other political systems."

Cohen wrote: "It would signal to others that Washington has given up its aspirations for global leadership and abandoned any notion of moral purpose on the international stage.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
President Donald Trump. Photo / Getty Images
President Donald Trump. Photo / Getty Images

"It would mean a return to a world that has no law other than that of the jungle — a world akin to the chaotic 1920s and 1930s.

"But worse than that, because there would be no United States out there on the periphery, ready to be awakened and ride to the rescue.

"It would usher in a period of disorder and bristling conflict, as countries heed the law of the jungle and scramble to fend for themselves.

"The appeal of authoritarian systems would grow."

Cohen says Trump and his advisers have formed isolationist policies under the slogan "America FIrst" which poorly masks a disdain for international bodies such as the UN.

This is coupled with the Trump notion that "others play Americans for fools" and has stymied the United States' reputation of almost a century, as a "globally engaged power" in world affairs.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Cohen said the methods by which Trump could win – the quirks of its electoral system, plus "voter suppression" and "artful" Republican politicking – was a recipe for instability at home.

And thumping "America First" to the rest of the world would "permanently tarnish the United States' reputation for stability and predictability".

Cohen expected that after winning a second term, Trump would try to do what all second term US presidents attempt, "to secure his place in history".

Cohen predicts this would likely be a Trump display of the art of the deal on an international scale of say, handling China/Taiwan, or an Israeli-Palestinian peace pact.

Meanwhile, at home, politically motivated violence on American streets might escalate, fanned by a victorious Trump and doubt over the validity of his win.

President Donald Trump waves to supporters in Rochester, Minnesota. Photo / Getty Images
President Donald Trump waves to supporters in Rochester, Minnesota. Photo / Getty Images

Cohen points out that the United States has been at pivotal points in it history before, during the Civil War and the Great Depression.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But it had Abraham Lincoln in the early 1860s and Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1930s to guide it back on the path forward.

"This time," Cohen writes, "the country would have a leader crippled by his own narcissism, [and] incompetence.

"There is no reason to think that Trump's bombast, self-pity, incoherence, belligerent narcissism, and fecklessness would abate after a second miraculous victory over a more popular Democratic opponent."

Save

    Share this article

Latest from World

World

'We will not accept': Niger Delta chief's $20b demand from Shell

21 Jun 01:28 AM
World

'Numbskull': Trump ramps up feud with central bank chief

21 Jun 12:25 AM
WorldUpdated

'Big win': Trump hails court ruling on National Guard deployment

21 Jun 12:09 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from World

'We will not accept': Niger Delta chief's $20b demand from Shell

'We will not accept': Niger Delta chief's $20b demand from Shell

21 Jun 01:28 AM

The case against Shell has been adjourned to July 22 in Yenagoa.

'Numbskull': Trump ramps up feud with central bank chief

'Numbskull': Trump ramps up feud with central bank chief

21 Jun 12:25 AM
'Big win': Trump hails court ruling on National Guard deployment

'Big win': Trump hails court ruling on National Guard deployment

21 Jun 12:09 AM
Luxon meets Xi Jinping, Russian drone attack, Trump on Iran | NZ Herald News Update

Luxon meets Xi Jinping, Russian drone attack, Trump on Iran | NZ Herald News Update

Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP