Biden, 80, is a canny operator who has got a lot done. His appeal, to the watching world, is as a provider of political and economic stability, and continuity in dealing with issues such as climate and the war in Ukraine.
At home, there is concern about his age but, while the Democrats have some promising younger options, there’s no rock star alternative able to take on an incumbent president wanting his second gig.
In some ways, the US election resembles recent French contests: an unpopular mainstream candidate gets through to a runoff against a fringe populist and people who don’t like their choices feel duty-bound to reject the extreme option.
While the Republican Party remains in thrall to former president Donald Trump or Trumpian rivals, the Democrats have an advantage. But it’s not a strong one. A candidate shouldn’t have to dig deep into opinion poll findings to see their strengths.
In NBC’s Monday poll, the problems for both parties are apparent. Biden’s approval rating is at 41 per cent while 54 per cent disapprove.
A full 70 per cent think he shouldn’t run for president again. Of that group 51 per cent are Democrats and 69 per cent cite his age as a reason. Biden’s numbers with independents are weaker than where he needs them to be.
On the other hand, 60 per cent of Americans don’t want GOP front runner Trump, 74, to chase his old job. And Biden is seen in a less unfavourable light than Trump, his Maga movement, and the Republican Party.
There’s a disconnect between how Republican voters see Trump’s legal troubles (68 per cent think they’re politically motivated) compared to the wider public’s views. The poll found that 52 per cent of all voters think he faces the same legal standard as others. And concern about abortion rights continues to work in the Democrats’ favour with 58 per cent saying it should be legal.
An AP poll last week showed that nearly half (47 per cent) of Americans do not want the looming Rumble in the Garden rematch bout of Biden v Trump.
The Washington Post compared this situation to 2016 when both Trump and Hillary Clinton were unpopular with many Americans. Trump won the “plague-on-both-their-houses” voters by 20 points. In 2020, Trump won those voters again but there were a lot fewer of them with Biden in the race.
Last week, a Wall Street Journal poll found that these double-negative voters currently back Biden over Trump by 54 to 15 per cent.
The public has been able to compare Biden and Trump as presidents. The intrigue going forward is that Democrats are locked into a Biden candidacy, whereas it’s still a contest on the other side.
