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Home / World

Editorial: Mystery over North Korea's Kim Jong Un an unwelcome twist

NZ Herald
27 Apr, 2020 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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The world is wondering: "What's happened to Kim Jong Un?" Photo / AP file

The world is wondering: "What's happened to Kim Jong Un?" Photo / AP file

This year has got the new decade off to a very rocky start.

In just four months, 2020 has served up horrific Australian bush fires, a pandemic and economic crisis.

Already the worldwide death toll from Covid-19 has passed 200,000.

In the worst-hit country, the United States, the death toll from the coronavirus is about the same as the number of American soldiers killed during the long years of the Vietnam War.

Yet even as the pandemic settles in, the prospect of another unwelcome twist in current events has been raised.

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South Korean officials are calling for caution amid reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be ill, emphasizing that they have detected no unusual movements in North Korea. https://t.co/XznymX6NVg

— Josh Smith (@joshjonsmith) April 27, 2020

A fog of uncertainty has hung for days over isolated and secretive North Korea and its leader Kim Jong Un, who has been out of the public eye for a fortnight.

The rest of the world has chewed over vague reports and rumours, amid a state-media hush in the Hermit Kingdom over Kim's condition.

There were reports last week that he was recovering from heart surgery, had suffered complications or was in 'grave danger'. American celebrity news site TMZ unexpectedly entered the speculation fray with a report that Kim had died.

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Reuters reported that a team of Chinese doctors and officials had been sent to North Korea to check on Kim. Analysts with the 38 North think-tank said satellite imagery showed a train had been parked at Kim's Wonsan compound for at least the past week.

The rumor mill keeps churning about Kim Jong-un's health and fate, for the simple fact that North Korea has not reported a public appearance by him for 2 weeks. Nor has it responded to the lurid claims about his health. https://t.co/mJWw2dFMvT

— New York Times World (@nytimesworld) April 27, 2020

Newsweek quoted Michael Madden, who runs 38 North, as saying a lack of unusual military activity suggests Kim is alive. "There's no movements in the country or around it. If he kicked the bucket something would be observable."

South Korea tried to dampen it down with a statement yesterday by an adviser to President Moon Jae In that Kim was "alive and well". The adviser added that: "No suspicious movements have so far been detected".

But it seems that should Kim put in an appearance, the speculation about his future and the regime's succession will not go away.

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The North Korean leader, though in his mid-30s, is a heavy smoker and over-weight, with a family history of heart problems. Those underlying issues could still mean his reign is ultimately short.

In previous bouts of instability at the top, North Korea-watchers have speculated on dangers and opportunities should the Kim dynasty collapse.

A power struggle, nuclear proliferation, floods of refugees, or perhaps eventual unification with Seoul are possible. But the regime has been a tough nut to crack.

This is a great overview of the different ways North Korea watchers try to gain insight into what's happening on the ground through open-source information. Well worth the 8 minutes. https://t.co/HflMGWbGSQ

— Martyn Williams (@martyn_williams) April 26, 2020

Given North Korea's antagonistic role in the world, nuclear weapons and authoritarian Government, any regime uncertainty is an extra problem the world does not need.

It is also a reminder that regular contact and co-operation between major powers and China – North Korea's chief ally – is important for global stability. The US, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia are the key players on this issue.

A trade war between Washington and Beijing, blame-apportioning over the coronavirus, and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea are among the roadblocks. But also, Tokyo's relations with Seoul have deteriorated in recent years and security costs have become an issue between the US and South Korea during the Trump Administration.

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My quick take on how things might play out in #NorthKorea for @cfrni @TheWilsonCenter https://t.co/qzo44EZAyq https://t.co/Q9Z5br4uua #KimJongUn

— Jean H. Lee (@newsjean) April 25, 2020

Talks, negotiations and countries working together will be key to preventing and containing political strains and unrest, future coronaviruses and the effects of climate change.

The pandemic and economic woes could represent a fork in the road to more - or less - international co-operation.

It could accelerate some existing nationalistic and protectionist trends. It could result in countries turning towards more regional pacts and working in with immediate neighbours rather than putting their faith in grand global strategies.

The fallout will continue for some time.

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