Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he plans to resign. Photo / Getty Images
Japan entered a period of renewed uncertainty yesterday when its embattled leader, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, announced his intent to resign after less than a year in office.
Now Japan, one of the world’s most stable democracies, faces a political reckoning as it grapples with a host of pressing challenges.
They include: a strained relationship with its chief ally, the United States; an increasingly assertive China; and stubborn economic woes that have alienated a generation of young people.
Ishiba’s resignation has set off a “profound leadership crisis” in Japan, said Mireya Solis, director of the Centre for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
The risk, she said, is that Japan returns to “the politics of indecisiveness”, with a revolving door of prime ministers.
Another possibility is that it more forcefully embraces far-right populism, which has been on the rise recently, with right-wing groups making striking gains in a recent parliamentary election.
In either case, Solis said, “the world would be deprived of a much-needed steady hand at the wheel”.
Here’s a look at why Ishiba’s resignation matters and what it means for Japan’s future.
What fuelled Ishiba’s downfall?
Japan has been going through a period of unusually rapid change.
Inflation, which had been absent for decades, is now running at around 3%.
Anti-foreigner sentiment is surging amid an influx of international workers and tourists.
Trade talks with the US Administration have been rocky and unpredictable, and many Japanese have felt betrayed by its tariff threats.
In July, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for all but five of the last 70 years, suffered a bruising defeat in parliamentary elections.
Voters rebuked the party for its handling of the economy, immigration, trade and relations with the US, as well as a political finance scandal and an ongoing rice shortage. Ishiba’s coalition lost 19 of 66 seats up for re-election.
The defeat, combined with an earlier blow in an election in October, left the Liberal Democrats a minority in both houses of the Diet, Japan’s parliament.
As voters turned elsewhere, far-right parties made gains, especially among young people. The biggest winners in July were two conservative parties that did not exist five years ago.
In the end, Ishiba, 68, could not quell calls to step down. He announced what he called the “painful decision to resign”. He said he had ultimately decided he should take responsibility for the past year’s election results. “I feel a great sense of regret,” he said.
What could happen next?
The central question now is who will succeed Ishiba. LDP officials are expected to discuss this week how and when to hold a leadership election.
The contenders could include Shinjiro Koizumi, the Agricultural Minister and son of a popular ex-prime minister; Sanae Takaichi, a hardline conservative who was endorsed by Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister assassinated in 2022; Yoshimasa Hayashi, the chief Cabinet secretary, who is seen as close to Ishiba; Toshimitsu Motegi, a former economy minister and foreign affairs minister; and Takayuki Kobayashi, a member of the Diet’s lower house.
Ishiba’s relatively centrist stance alienated some conservative LDP supporters, which helped to galvanise right-wing groups upset about low wages, immigration and an unresponsive political elite.
The LDP faces an “identity crisis”, said Tobias Harris, the founder of the advisory firm Japan Foresight. He framed its choice this way: Is it a “uniformly ideological conservative party”, as Abe wanted it to be, or a “big tent that tries to represent the entire country?”
The candidates vying to succeed Ishiba will face pressure to make the party more responsive to public concerns. Given its minority position in the Diet, officials might also look for someone who has shown an ability to work with other parties.
Overall, the LDP wants a leader who can help unify the party and connect with the public — especially young and urban voters — about everyday struggles, including the high cost of living.
“The party is increasingly out of touch with a lot of the electorate, including its means for communicating with voters,” Harris said.
What challenges will Japan’s next leader face?
The next prime minister will face a variety of hot-button issues, like immigration, inflation, tariffs, an ageing population and China’s military build-up in the South China Sea.
Then there is the wild card: the US under President Donald Trump. Ishiba’s Government spent months negotiating a trade deal with Washington that left Japanese exports with a 15% across-the-board tariff.
An important question for Ishiba’s potential successors will be how they can reinvent the LDP brand, Solís said.
“What can they offer in terms of dealing with key stressors on Japanese society today: inflation, taxes, an immigration surge and a domineering American president?” she said.
Harris expressed doubt that the next prime minister, whoever that is, would be able to handle all of the challenges facing Japan.
“It’s an incredibly daunting set of tasks that’s probably beyond any one individual,” he said.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Javier C. Hernández
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