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Home / World

'Cubs win World Series, President Trump elected'

By Frank Chung
news.com.au·
4 Nov, 2016 04:56 AM3 mins to read

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Here's our simple video guide to understanding the American presidential election system

Trump-Pence 2016 is looking more like Trump-Cubs 2016.

The Chicago Cubs' historic World Series win breaking a 108-year drought was considered so unlikely, pollsters put it right alongside a Trump presidency.

But Nate Silver, statistician and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, is not laughing now. "Reminder: Cubs will win the World Series and, in exchange, President Trump will be elected 8 days later," he tweeted on 11 May this year.

Reminder: Cubs will win the World Series and, in exchange, President Trump will be elected 8 days later. https://t.co/lej7TXnnju

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 11, 2016
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Silver, who rose to fame during the 2008 presidential election, had as late as January this year put the likelihood of Trump winning the nomination in the low single digits.

He would later admit that he "acted like a pundit screwed up".

By late last month, FiveThirtyEight's prediction models had given the Cubs a 24 per cent chance versus 76 per cent for the Indians - exactly the same odds it gave to Trump.

Current chances to win:#WorldSeries
• Indians: 85%
• Cubs: 15%

White House 🏛
• Clinton: 78.5%
• Trump: 21.4%https://t.co/ersxHxsdNx

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 30, 2016

The Cubs' historic win, which was almost predicted by Back to the Future, may have moved Bill Murray to tears, but Trump supporters - many of whom dislike Silver, to say the least - were equally joyful.

"IT'S HAPPENING," tweeted @KGBVeteran. "Nate has the monkey paw version of future sight. It always shows him what he DOESN'T want to see, and it comes true," said @TheHippestHippo.

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"This might be the first accurate prediction of the year for you, Nate Aluminum," tweeted @comicsea44. "Apparently you used all your prediction powers on one single tweet this year," @hunterswogg said.

Nate has the monkey paw version of future sight. It always shows him what he DOESNT want to see, and it comes true.

— TheDominosDiddler (@TheHippestHippo) November 3, 2016

@No_Little_Plans This might be the first accurate prediction of the year for you Nate Aluminum.

— James Barris (@cosmicsea44) November 3, 2016

What's up Nate? pic.twitter.com/1cN8QBRkJz

— FluffyDogAttack a.k.a. Winston Smith (@FluffyDogAttack) November 3, 2016

What makes this whole thing even spookier? Joe and Marlene Ricketts, the family that owns the Chicago Cubs, donated $US1 million to Trump's campaign less than two months ago.

But as far as predictions go, no one can beat this guy:

*mom walks into my room* -look at my yearbook from '93 #...
This dude called the cubs winning the series in 2016 for his senior quote. pic.twitter.com/Dq4kWFIziy

— Thomas j Dale (@tommydale33) October 25, 2016

Discover more

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The epic fail of the American electorate

04 Nov 04:00 PM
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Cubs celebration 7th largest gathering in human history

04 Nov 09:59 PM
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