Israel has razed much of Gaza during its nearly two-year war against Hamas, which has killed more than 60,000 people, according to health officials in the territory, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Some Arab governments have suggested that they would be willing to play a role in stabilising the enclave, such as backing a post-war international security mission.
At times, officials have floated the idea that Arab countries would send their own soldiers.
But, according to analysts, Arab leaders want that mission to ultimately turn Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority, which they view as the main feasible alternative to Hamas.
They also want a political path towards Palestinian statehood.
Both of these outcomes would cross red lines for Netanyahu’s Government.
“If Netanyahu says yes to something like this, it means the end of the war, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and, most importantly, the collapse of the Government,” said Michael Milshtein, a former senior Israeli intelligence officer.
“Netanyahu isn’t willing to go there.”
Israel vowed to topple Hamas after the Palestinian militants launched the deadly October 7, 2023, attacks, which killed about 1200 people, with 250 taken hostage, according to Israel.
Nearly two years later, Israel has yet to decisively defeat Hamas.
Gaza’s two million residents are enduring widespread hunger after Israeli restrictions on aid.
Netanyahu’s Cabinet approved the latest plan to seize Gaza City over the objections of Israel’s security chiefs, who have raised questions about whether war-weary Israeli reserve soldiers would be in a condition to carry out the advance.
Even if Israeli troops do advance into Gaza City, military analysts say, they would most likely do little to tip the balance in the war.
Israeli forces have repeatedly attacked across Gaza without successfully compelling Hamas to accept Israeli demands like laying down its arms.
It would also probably take weeks for Israel to carry out the attack, leaving time for the Government to change course — either following international pressure or because Hamas agreed to a truce.
More immediately, Arab countries might change their stance on post-war governance in an effort to prevent a major offensive on Gaza City.
At the weekend, a host of Arab and Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, condemned the latest Israeli plans as “a dangerous and unacceptable escalation”.
In late July, several Arab nations, including Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the Arab League, backed an initiative that aimed to provide both sides with an off-ramp.
The announcement came at a conference organised by France and Saudi Arabia in support of an independent Palestinian state.
The declaration included unusually tough language from Arab governments condemning the Hamas-led attacks in 2023. It also called on Hamas to demilitarise, give up its rule in Gaza, and free the hostages.
Joined by about a dozen other countries, the Arab nations also said that they supported an international security mission.
According to the plan, that mission would help transfer security responsibility to the Palestinian Authority.
Israel has appeared to rule out that option.
On Friday, the Cabinet said it had placed a condition on ending the war on establishing an administration “that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority”.
The Palestinian Authority, governed by its 89-year-old President, Mahmoud Abbas, administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The authority used to govern Gaza, too, but Hamas won elections there in 2006 and took full control in 2007.
Hamas officials say they are willing to give up their rule in Gaza as part of a comprehensive deal to end the war. They insist on maintaining their military wing, which Israeli critics say would leave them effectively in charge.
Natan Sachs, a Middle East analyst in Washington, said: “The two main obstacles remain the same - Hamas’ reluctance to give up control, no matter what the cost to the Gaza Strip, and Netanyahu’s reluctance to threaten his coalition in any way”.
It is far from clear whether Arab states would be willing to risk their own soldiers’ lives in Gaza or pay the more than US$50 billion ($84b) estimated to rebuild.
With no other feasible option, Israel is gradually moving toward assuming full control, Milshtein said.
The Arab nations’ proposals in July were “not ideal”, he noted, but far better than Israel establishing a costly and bloody military administration.
“At this point, all of the choices are bad, and we need to pick the least bad option,” Milshtein said.
“Occupying all of Gaza would be a catastrophe.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Aaron Boxerman
Photographs by: Saher Alghorra
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