NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / World

Analysis: Is the US in a Cold War with China?

By David E. Sanger
New York Times·
18 Oct, 2021 05:00 AM9 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Unlike the Cold War with the Soviet Union, one with China would most likely encompass technological and economic competition as well as the classic military rivalry. Photo / AP

Unlike the Cold War with the Soviet Union, one with China would most likely encompass technological and economic competition as well as the classic military rivalry. Photo / AP

Incursions into Taiwan's air zone, a space launch and what looked like a prisoner swap raise a question that is about more than just semantics. It could signal a dangerous new mind-set.

When Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister and longtime China expert, told a German newsmagazine recently that a Cold War between Beijing and Washington was "probable and not just possible," his remarks rocketed around the White House, where officials have gone to some lengths to squelch such comparisons.

It is true, they concede, that China is emerging as a far broader strategic adversary than the Soviet Union ever was — a technological threat, a military threat, an economic rival. And while President Joe Biden insisted at the United Nations last month that "we are not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs," his repeated references this year to a generational struggle between "autocracy and democracy" conjured for some the ideological edge of the 1950s and '60s.

Yet the question of whether the United States is entering a new Cold War is about more than just finding the right metaphor for this odd turn in superpower politics. Governments that plunge into a Cold War mindset can exaggerate every conflict, convinced that they are part of a larger struggle. They can miss opportunities for cooperation, as the United States and China did in battling Covid-19, and may yet on the climate.

Read More

  • Kevin Rudd: Xi Jinping's Evergrande dilemma has repercussions ...
  • US raises concern as China flies warplanes south of ...
  • Explainer: How China flights near Taiwan inflame tensions ...
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

And the issue of whether this is a Cold War, or something quite different, lurks just beneath the escalating tensions over economic strategy, technological competition and military manoeuvres — undersea, in space and in cyberspace.

Keep up to date with the day's biggest stories

Sign up to our daily curated newsletter for the day's top stories straight to your inbox.
Please email me competitions, offers and other updates. You can stop these at any time.
By signing up for this newsletter, you agree to NZME’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Without a doubt, the past few weeks have resounded with echoes of old-style Cold War behavior: the Chinese air force running sorties inside Taiwan's air identification zone; Beijing expanding its space program, launching three more astronauts to its space station and accelerating its tests of hypersonic missiles meant to defeat American missile defences; and the release of a top Huawei executive for two Canadians and two Americans in what looked like a prisoner swap. At the same time, the US announced it would provide nuclear submarine technology to Australia, with the prospect that its subs could pop up, undetected, along the Chinese coast. It didn't escape Chinese commentators that the last time the United States shared that kind of technology was in 1958, when Britain adopted naval reactors as part of the effort to counter Russia's expanding nuclear arsenals.

And just before the announcement of the Australia deal, satellite photographs revealed new Chinese nuclear missile fields, whose existence Beijing has not explained. American analysts are uncertain about the Chinese government's intentions, but some inside US intelligence agencies and the Pentagon are wondering whether President Xi Jinping has decided to abandon six decades of a Chinese "minimum deterrent" strategy, even at the risk of setting off a new arms race.

The constant background din of cyberconflict and technology theft was one factor behind the CIA's announcement this month that it had created a new China mission center to position the United States, in the words of its director, William Burns, to confront "the most important geopolitical threat we face in the 21st century, an increasingly adversarial Chinese government."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

For all this, Biden's top aides say that the old Cold War is the wrong way to frame what is happening — and that the use of the term can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Instead, they argue that it should be possible for the two superpowers to compartmentalise, cooperating on the climate and containing North Korea's arsenal, even while competing on technology and trade, or jousting for advantage in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.

The White House is loath to put a label on this multilayered approach, which may explain why Biden has yet to give a speech laying it out in any detail. But his actions so far look increasingly like those in a world of competitive coexistence, a bit edgier than the "peaceful coexistence" that Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev used to characterise the old Cold War. (Interestingly, after meeting this month in Switzerland with Jake Sullivan, the president's national security adviser, China's top diplomat said he objected to any description of the US-China relationship as "competitive.")

Discover more

Business

Power plays behind China's bid to join CPTPP

21 Sep 05:30 AM
New Zealand|politics

Preparing for war between US and China - what it means for NZ and Australia

17 Sep 05:00 PM
World

'We have no idea how they did this': Secret hypersonic launch shows China streaking ahead in arms race

17 Oct 09:20 PM
New Zealand

Taiwan is becoming a flashpoint for China and the US – how does NZ respond?

12 Oct 03:27 AM
Biden has insisted that "we are not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs," but his references to a struggle between "autocracy and democracy" have evoked the 1950s. Photo / AP
Biden has insisted that "we are not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs," but his references to a struggle between "autocracy and democracy" have evoked the 1950s. Photo / AP

But if the administration is still struggling with the terminology, it says it knows what this isn't.

"This is nothing like the Cold War, which was primarily a military competition," one of Biden's senior administration advisers said in an interview, speaking on the condition of anonymity because, in the Biden White House, there is no area where words are measured more carefully than in talking about relations with Beijing.

In July, Biden's top Asia adviser, Kurt M. Campbell, told the Asia Society that the Cold War comparison "obscures more that it illuminates" and is "in no way helpful, fundamentally, to some of the challenges presented by China."

The deep links between the two economies — the mutual dependencies on technology, trade and data that leaps the Pacific in milliseconds on American and Chinese-dominated networks — never existed in the more familiar Cold War. The Berlin Wall not only delineated a sharp line between spheres of influence, freedom and authoritarian control, it stopped most communications and trade. The year it fell, 1989, the United States exported US$4.3 billion in goods to the Soviets and imported US$709 million, an inconsequential blip for both economies. (In current dollars, those numbers would be a bit more than doubled.)

In this superpower standoff, all those lines are blurred, with Huawei and China Telecom equipment running data through NATO nations, the Chinese-owned TikTok app active on tens of millions of American phones, and Beijing worried that the West's crackdown on selling advanced semiconductors to China could cripple some of its national champions, Huawei included. And yet, even through a pandemic and threats of "decoupling," the United States exported US$124 billion in goods to China last year and imported US$434 billion. That made China the largest supplier of goods to the United States, and the third largest consumer of its exports, after Canada and Mexico.

"The size and complexity of the trade relationship is underappreciated," Campbell said in July, as part of his argument of why this moment in time differs dramatically from the Cold War of 40 years ago.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But, another of Biden's advisers noted the other day, psychology counts for as much in superpower politics as statistics. And whether or not the two countries want to call this a Cold War, they are often behaving, the official noted, as if "we are already immersed in one."

That is the central argument of those who contend that a new Cold War — one very different from the last — is quickly coming to dominate Washington's dealings with its central rival. "People think that the only definition of a Cold War is the US-Soviet model," said Paul Heer, a longtime CIA analyst who spent years focused on Asia, "which it need not be."

He agrees with the White House officials who say that the new dynamic is not defined largely by a nuclear standoff, or by an ideological struggle in which only one side can prevail. And, he notes in a recent article in The National Interest, the world will not "divide itself into American and Chinese camps."

But the core element of the old Cold War — "a state of hostility short of armed conflict" in Heer's telling — is already clear, as both countries seek power and influence, and to obstruct or contain each other. "There are good reasons that neither government wants to call it a Cold War," Heer noted in an interview last week. "But they are both approaching it that way, and the politics on both sides are making it hard to imagine how we will keep it from evolving into that."

Some American intelligence and military officials are wondering whether President Xi Jinping of China has decided to abandon six decades of a "minimum deterrent" strategy. Photo / AP
Some American intelligence and military officials are wondering whether President Xi Jinping of China has decided to abandon six decades of a "minimum deterrent" strategy. Photo / AP

In Washington, one of the few issues that overrides partisan divides in Congress is the spectre of Chinese competition, in such crucial areas as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing: That is how the "China bill" passed the Senate in a solidly bipartisan vote. (It has yet to come up in the House.)

While few on Capitol Hill want to utter the words, the bill amounts to industrial policy, a once contentious concept in Washington that is now barely debated, thanks to the spectre of Chinese competition. For example, the Senate bill, as passed, offers US$52 billion to expand domestic chip manufacturing, far beyond anything the United States considered when battling Japan's technological dominance in the same industry more than 30 years ago. But today Japan's share of the global chip sales has declined to about 10 per cent, and it no longer looms large in American industrial fears.

There are reasons to worry that whatever this era is called, the chance for conflict is now higher than it has ever been. Joseph S. Nye, known best for his writings on the use of "soft power" in geopolitical competition, rejects the Cold War analogy, noting that while many in Washington "talk about a general 'decoupling'" of the world's two largest economies, "it is mistaken to think we can decouple our economy completely from China without enormous economic costs."

But Nye, who once ran the National Intelligence Council, a group that provides long-term assessments of threats to the United States, warns against the risk of what he calls "sleepwalker syndrome," which is how the world spiralled into conflict in 1914.

"The fact that the Cold War metaphor is counterproductive as a strategy does not rule out a new Cold War," he said. "We may get there by accident."

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.


Written by: David E. Sanger
© 2021 THE NEW YORK TIMES

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from World

World

Mushroom poisoning murder-accused grilled on eighth and final day in witness box

12 Jun 07:15 AM
World

Australia ‘confident’ in US nuclear sub deal despite review

12 Jun 05:55 AM
World

US crisis escalates: The latest as protests spread across the country

12 Jun 04:01 AM

It was just a stopover – 18 months later, they call it home

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Recommended for you
Five stunning coastal golf courses to play around the British Isles
Travel

Five stunning coastal golf courses to play around the British Isles

12 Jun 07:00 AM
Mark Lundy's media silence raises concerns over freedom of speech
New Zealand

Mark Lundy's media silence raises concerns over freedom of speech

12 Jun 06:49 AM
Search continues for New Plymouth woman missing for two nights
New Zealand

Search continues for New Plymouth woman missing for two nights

12 Jun 06:27 AM
 Water cut to 150 Auckland homes after contractor damages main
New Zealand

Water cut to 150 Auckland homes after contractor damages main

12 Jun 06:14 AM
These mushroom, lemon and egg tarts are wrapped in crispy filo
Viva - Food & Drink

These mushroom, lemon and egg tarts are wrapped in crispy filo

12 Jun 06:00 AM

Latest from World

Mushroom poisoning murder-accused grilled on eighth and final day in witness box

Mushroom poisoning murder-accused grilled on eighth and final day in witness box

12 Jun 07:15 AM

Erin Patterson denied making a sixth mushroom meal for her husband, saying it was extra.

Australia ‘confident’ in US nuclear sub deal despite review

Australia ‘confident’ in US nuclear sub deal despite review

12 Jun 05:55 AM
US crisis escalates: The latest as protests spread across the country

US crisis escalates: The latest as protests spread across the country

12 Jun 04:01 AM
Trump booed, cheered while attending play premiere amid boycott controversy

Trump booed, cheered while attending play premiere amid boycott controversy

12 Jun 03:40 AM
The woman behind NZ’s first PAK’nSAVE
sponsored

The woman behind NZ’s first PAK’nSAVE

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
All Access. All in one subscription. From $2 per week
Subscribe now

All Access Weekly

From $2 per week
Pay just
$15.75
$2
per week ongoing
Subscribe now
BEST VALUE

All Access Annual

Pay just
$449
$49
per year ongoing
Subscribe now
Learn more
30
TOP
search by queryly Advanced Search