Among Brexit foes, a second referendum is gaining traction

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Luxembourg in September. Photo / AP

As Britain and the European Union grope for an elusive new agreement on Brexit, an old idea is suddenly getting new traction in the halls of Parliament: putting Britain's departure from Europe back up for a popular vote.

Labour members of Parliament said they would push to attach an amendment to whatever agreement Prime Minister Boris Johnson brings back from Brussels, which would require him to let the British people vote on whether to accept his deal and leave the European Union — or stay put.

The last time Parliament voted on a second referendum, in April, the proposal failed by 12 votes. But two of the plan's backers, Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, contend that the grinding debate over Brexit has shifted sentiment enough that it is worth trying again to get it through the House of Commons.

For those Britons still traumatised by their country's decision to leave Europe in June 2016, a second referendum has long beckoned as the ultimate do-over — a chance to put three years of turmoil, division, and political paralysis behind them by essentially saying to their European neighbours, "never mind."

"It's a definitive end to the Brexit nightmare," said Kyle, whose seaside district in East Sussex voted to remain in the European Union.

Kyle argued that the case for a second vote had strengthened because any agreement struck by Johnson would likely represent a harder form of Brexit than the deal negotiated by his predecessor, Theresa May, and far harder than anything proposed by the Leave side during the original referendum campaign. The House of Commons soundly defeated May's deal three times.

When Johnson presented his proposal to the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, he characterised May's deal as a "bridge to a proposed future relationship with the EU in which the UK could be closely integrated with the EU customs arrangements and would align with EU law in many areas."

"That proposed future relationship," Johnson wrote, "is not the goal of the current UK government."

Given how the terms of Brexit have hardened — to say nothing of how far the concept has evolved since the binary choice offered voters in 2016 — Kyle said the public ought to have another chance to vote.

Phil Wilson, a Labour member of Parliament who represents a district in northeast England that voted to leave Europe, said he was not sure his constituents would vote for Brexit again, given their fears about the potential impact on their children's futures.

"In 2016, people, yes, did vote to leave, but they didn't vote how to leave," he said at a briefing organised by the Foreign Press Association.

Critics, including Johnson, have opposed another referendum as a cynical effort by those who lost in 2016 to overturn the democratic will of the people. Even those who regret Britain's decision to leave say a second vote would likely produce an outcome as close as in 2016, when the margin was 52 per cent to 48 per cent, whichever side prevailed.

That would settle little, they say, and could actually make matters worse.

"There is a genuine fear of the polarisation that might result from a referendum, particularly if the result were turned around," said Timothy Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. "People who voted to leave would feel that Brexit had been stolen from them."

Still, the overwhelming majority of polls show that if Britons voted again, they would opt to remain in Europe. That is less a result of people changing their minds — though some have — than of demographics: about 2.1 million young people have been added to the voting rolls since 2016, while a similar number of older people have died. Young people tend to favor staying in Europe, even if they are less conscientious voters, while a majority of older people voted to leave.

Even among the 15 per cent or so of people who have changed their minds, "More Leavers have switched to Remain, particularly among young working women with children and working-class voters," said John Kerr, a member of the House of Lords who served as Britain's ambassador to the United States and the European Union and who is a vocal proponent of a new vote.

Anti-Brexit remain in the European Union supporters protest across the street from the Houses of Parliament in London. Photo / AP

Proponents of a referendum point to new studies showing that the plan being proposed by Johnson would hurt the British economy more than the one May negotiated and failed to get through Parliament.

May's agreement could have left all of the United Kingdom temporarily in the same customs territory as the European Union, aligning Britain with many of Europe's regulations until a trade deal was reached. Johnson's proposal would remove Britain from the customs union, leaving only Northern Ireland in a hybrid status in which it adhered to many of Europe's regulations while leaving the customs union along with Britain.

The Johnson plan would reduce income per capita in Britain by an estimated 2.5 per cent, relative to staying in the European Union, according to The UK in a Changing Europe, a research group that tracks Brexit issues. That compares to a 1.7 per cent reduction under May's plan, and a 3.3 per cent reduction if Britain left without any deal, as Johnson has repeatedly threatened.

The challenge for pro-referendum forces is finding the votes in Parliament. They have reasons for hope: Johnson's threat to leave the European Union by October 31, even without a deal, ignited a rebellion in his own Conservative Party, leading the government to purge 21 of the party's lawmakers.

Of those, nine voted for a referendum last April and three voted against. That leaves a pool of 10 votes, including Amber Rudd, who resigned from Johnson's Cabinet because of what she said was his drive for a no-deal Brexit. But, as the vote counters concede, that still leaves the referendum a few votes short.

Support in the Labour Party is rising as well, analysts said, in part because of uneasiness about facing Johnson's Conservative Party in an election. But the party's leadership remains divided. Jeremy Corbyn, the party's leader, would rather fight a general election against Johnson first and then, if victorious, negotiate his own deal with the European Union. He could then hold a referendum offering a choice between his Brexit plan and remaining in the bloc.

Lawmakers could seek paths to a second referendum other than as an amendment to Johnson's deal. One possibility is to hold a vote on it if the prime minister fails to bring back any deal from Brussels. Another is to revive May's agreement and attach it to that. But the plan's backers acknowledge the most straightforward path would be to attach it to a Johnson plan.

"For him to believe his deal can get through the House of Commons without an amendment is a suicide mission," Kyle said.

Written by: Mark Landler

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