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Home / Travel

Is turbulence getting more frequent - and is climate change to blame? - The Front Page

Chelsea Daniels
By Chelsea Daniels
The Front Page podcast host·NZ Herald·
23 Dec, 2024 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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Multiple flights have had issues due to extreme turbulence, most notably on the Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 that killed one and injured many others.
Multiple flights have had issues due to extreme turbulence, most notably on the Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 that killed one and injured many others.

Multiple flights have had issues due to extreme turbulence, most notably on the Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 that killed one and injured many others.

While The Front Page is on its summer break, we are revisiting some of the biggest news stories from 2024. New episodes return on January 13th.

In recent months, stories of extreme turbulence have come to dominate travel headlines.

A flight between Spain and Uruguay this week had to be diverted to Brazil after dozens were injured due to turbulence. It’s the latest in a string of turbulence incidents this year.

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In one case in April, a man onboard an Air New Zealand flight from Bali broke his leg, while in May, a violent Singapore Airlines flight saw dozens hospitalised and one passenger die of a suspected heart attack.

On top of this, we’re also seeing multiple stories of domestic flights where planes have had issues landing and local and international flights getting turned around midway through their journeys due to technical issues.

Massey University’s School of Aviation chief executive Ashok Podavul has over 12,000 hours of airline jet flying experience.

He told The Front Page there is a theory that the number of turbulence incidents in recent times has been in “quick succession”.

“Whether this is going to be an ongoing trend or not remains to be seen. But, there is a study by the University of Reading, where they have talked about the link between climate change and turbulence. They are forecasting that turbulence incidents are going to increase in the future.”

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Turbulence is essentially unstable air that moves in a non-predictable fashion, and the most dangerous type is clear-air turbulence, which often occurs with no visible indicators in the sky ahead to warn pilots.

The research revealed severe clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic has increased by 55% since 1979.

Podavul said the probability of something happening mid-flight is mathematically extremely low, given there are roughly between 99,000 and 100,000 flights, globally, every day.

“For an aircraft to be certified, the risk of any catastrophic component failure has to be lower than one over 10 to the power of nine.

“So basically, if you throw 10 dice and the chances of all of them coming up with the same number, the probability of a catastrophic failure has to be less than that,” he said.

Aftermath of the turbulence on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321.
Aftermath of the turbulence on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321.

Turbulence is the main cause of passenger and crew injuries on what is still the safest form of mass transport for the close to five billion people who fly every year.

Travelling domestically, ACC provides “no-fault cover” - which means it doesn’t matter what you were doing when you were injured or who was at fault.

Physical injuries covered include sprains or strains, wounds, burns, fractures, dislocations, dental injuries, hearing loss, and concussion.

If an injury happens while travelling overseas, it’s best to contact the international airline or consult with your travel insurance provider.

Consumer NZ’s Jessica Walker told The Front Page customers should always check with their airline in the first instance - and if a delay or cancellation is a result of something that would have been within the airline’s control you could claim certain things.

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“So if there’s a problem with the airplane, which means it can’t take off if there’s something like staff sickness.

“We would always urge impacted passengers to find out what the reason for the cancellation or delay. We are hearing that this is getting better and that communications from airlines are improving.”

Walker said passengers are entitled to a reimbursement of up to 10 times the cost of your ticker, or the cost of the delay, whichever is lower.

“The cost of delay could be things like a new flight, perhaps accommodation if there isn’t a flight available until the next day to meals. You shouldn’t be in a worse-off position just because the flight didn’t take off. You would need to keep hold of all of your receipts and then submit those to the airline and put your claim in,” she said.

Claims have to be “reasonable” - so no five-star hotels, unless there is no other option. Passengers can also claim things like clothes and toiletries.

“It might be that you need something to sleep in and a clean pair of undies for the next day and a toothbrush, you know. But, you couldn’t go out and buy a whole new wardrobe. So, it’s just about being reasonable - otherwise, the airline is likely to decline your request.”

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Listen to the full episode to hear more about how turbulence works and what your rights are when you fly.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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