The Covid-19 outbreak means that Rabobank's latest Agribusiness Monthly report is a very different read from March, says Blake Holgate.
Rabobank's animal proteins analyst told The Country's Jamie Mackay the report made the beginning of March seem "a lifetime ago."
A month ago Covid-19was seen as "a China issue" with New Zealand waiting to see how a slow down there would affect our agri-economies and commodities.
"Since then it's changed to a global pandemic, affecting pretty much all the key markets we supply into and that has some pretty big implications both in the short term and long term."
While some commodities had been holding up so far, reduced demand meant reduced prices said Holgate.
Listen below:
"Just to be clear our current baseline scenario is a global economic slow down similar to the Global Financial Crisis. So that's where what we're basing our assumptions on at the moment ... as the global economy slows down, as panic-buying that's occuring now fades, we do have do have to get global demand to significantly reduce across the agri-commodities."
However the exchange rate remained a positive for New Zealand said Holgate.
"But there are some important in-commodity mitigants that are offset ... the dollar ... that will help all New Zealand prices to offset in-market reduction in US terms."
Also in today's interview: Holgate looked at the red meat market as well as some downside risks domestically and internationally.
