Niwa outlook: Cold snaps expected for Stratford, Taranaki in early August

Stratford can expect cooler temperatures at the start of August, as reported in Niwa's seasonal outlook for August - October 2024. Photo / Alyssa Smith

Central Taranaki residents are in for a bout of cold weather, according to Niwa’s August-October seasonal outlook.

The report states that a cold snap, along with likely frosts is expected for early August in the Central North Island region, which includes Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū, Horowhenua and Wellington.

The colder-than-average start to August is due to a climate driver in the stratosphere, impacting weather patterns during August in the southern hemisphere.

Niwa principal scientist of forecasting and media Chris Brandolino said while Stratford could expect a colder start to the month, it would get warmer after the first week.

“For the next three months, the temperature is expected to be average or above average for that area.”

He said some frost could be expected but a higher daytime temperature than normal. In terms of rainfall, Stratford would have a dry start to the next three months.

“Over the next 10 days, it is predicted that most areas across Taranaki that are away from the sea can expect a very small amount of rain, less than 10ml.”

He said for the second half of August, around the third or fourth week of the month, more rainfall and unsettled weather is predicted.

“As we go on to September and October, we believe the rainfall will be normal. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal.”

While Niwa doesn’t specifically report on snowfall trends, Brandolino said that given the lack of moisture and cold temperatures, people may have to wait a bit longer for Taranaki Maunga to have a decent snowfall.

“In terms of snow, you need moisture and temperature and that’s not expected for the start of August. I can say that an abundant snowfall doesn’t look promising.

“The same is expected for Ruapehu.”

He encouraged people, especially farmers and agricultural workers to regularly check rainfall trends in the region using Niwa’s Drought Forecast.

“Niwa has this great tool that helps us predict rainfall and expected dryness. It’s free for anyone to check at any time and gets updated daily.”

To check out the forecast, visit: https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/