New Zealand have 211 athletes at the Tokyo Olympics, competing across 22 sports. Cameron McMillan ranks their chances of a medal.
Tier 1: Golden opportunity
Women's rugby sevens
Have been almost unbeatable since the Rio Olympics. Ranked No 1 in the world, they have won 16 of 22 World Series tournaments, the Sevens World Cup and Commonwealth Games gold.
Lisa Carrington, women's K1 200m
Two-time defending champion in the event. Has won seven successive world titles and undefeated in the event for more than a decade. Would become the first New Zealander to win the same event three straight times.
Lisa Carrington and Caitlin Regal, women's K2 500m
Carrington and Regal took silver at the 2018 worlds but they didn't link up the next year, won by Maryna Litvinchuk and Volha Khudzenka of Belarus. Hard to tell where everyone is placed with no international competitions since 2019.
Lisa Carrington, women's K1 500m
Claimed bronze in this event five years ago and is defending world champion in the 500m. Three gold medals will be some feat for Carrington considering how quick the turnaround is for each event. Maybe being the longer distanced event, the 500m could prove too much for her.
Peter Burling and Blair Tuke, men's 49er
Defending Olympic champions. Heavy favourites to do it again. Won the World Championships twice in two months to make it six in the class.
Grace Prendergast and Kerri Gowler, rowing women's pair
Won the World Championship final by more than two seconds in 2019. Rowers are a little bit of an unknown due to lack of international competition post-Covid. Expect Aussies Jessica Morrison and Annabelle McIntyre to be their biggest challengers.
Rowing women's eight
Defending world champions. Bookmakers' favourites to win gold. A real chance for Prendergast and Gowler to come home with two golds. Potential to match the men's eight in 1972.
Josh Junior, Men's Finn
Became the first Kiwi to win the Finn Gold Cup (world championships) in 2019 and followed that with bronze at this year's event in Portugal.
Men's rugby sevens
Won a truncated World Series in 2019/20 with series victories in Cape Town, Vancouver and Hamilton. Beat Australia but lost to Fiji in Oceania Sevens last month, their first decent post-Covid hit-out.
Tier 2: In the medals
Tom Walsh, men's shot put
Gold is certainly still a chance but American Ryan Crouser is the favourite after breaking the world record last month. With Joe Kovacs and Michał Haratyk also throwing over 22m this year it's going to be a great showdown.
Valerie Adams, women's shot put
Staggering to be competing at her fifth Games but the fact she's a real chance for a fourth medal and a third gold is simply amazing. Threw 19.75m in Poland last month so tracking well. Just one of four to get over the 19.70m in 2021. China's Lijiao Gong is the favourite after a 20.39m attempt last month but she has a history of failing to reach bigger distances on the big stage.
Sam Meech, men's Laser
Has been consistently among the contenders on the world stage since bronze in Rio. Will need to improve, however, on his fifth in the test event two years ago.
Tier 3: Could be gold, could be nothing
Jonelle and Tim Price and the equestrian team
Potential to be the story of the Games for New Zealand. Wife and husband go gold-silver and lead the New Zealand team to a gold as well. They have the pedigree to do it with both claiming multiple five-star events since Rio.
Laurel Hubbard, weightlifting women's 87+kg
Potential to be another headline-grabber. Sixth at the World Championships. Her personal best stands outside medal range - but could have improved over the last year.
David Nyika, men's heavyweight boxing
The rare pro turning up to amateur boxing competition. Nyika is a two-time Commonwealth Games champion and due to the Olympics being delayed has already made his professional debut – a 29-second KO. Lost in the round of 16 at the 2019 World Championships to Russian Olympic Committee athlete Muslim Gadzhimagomedov who will be in Tokyo. But with a bit of luck he could avoid him or favourite Vassiliy Levit until the medal rounds.
Emma Twigg, women's rowing single sculls
A silver at the World Rowing Championships in 2019 puts Twigg back in the medal conversation after just being pipped for bronze in Rio – her second fourth at an Olympics. Has been in impressive form since her return to the sport following a two-year break after the Rio Games, winning two World Cup events.
Brooke Donoghue and Hannah Osbourne, women's rowing double sculls
Donoghue won the world title two years ago alongside Olivia Loe who has shifted to the quad. Osbourne hops into the seat. Could be a world-beating combination but hard to tell without a big event under their belts.
Tier 4: Certainly a chance to get on the dais
All the track cyclists
They could have been locked away in Cambridge during Covid-19, smashing out times that will be enough for gold, or be well behind the pack. Like rowing and kayaking, it's a bit of guess work as there hasn't been much competition since the World Championships last February. And the track events are often harder to call come Olympics as the personnel in rival nations may change from World Cups when pro tour riders might make themselves available.
The track team have a real chance of medals though, mainly with the men's events. Campbell Stewart won the Omnium at the 2019 World Championships and then silver with Aaron Gate in the Madison at last year's World Championships.
The pursuit teams can't be ignored either. The men's team pursuit were second at the worlds, just 2.163 seconds behind Denmark who broke the world record. The women's pursuit finished fourth in Berlin so are worth a shout as well.
The men's sprint team that won silver in Rio return without Eddie Dawkins. Ethan Mitchell, Sam Webster and Sam Dakin were off the pace however at the last World Championships, finishing sixth. Webster and Mitchell were also back in the pack in the individual sprint event.
Ellesse Andrews was fifth in the women's Keirin at the World Championships and is also an outside chance.
The rest of the team; Andrews in the sprint and Kirstie James in the Keirin and sprint, Holly Edmondston in the Omnium, Rushlee Buchanan and Jessie Hodges in the Madison and the men's Keirin duo of Dakin and Webster didn't show enough or didn't compete at the last World Championships.
Lewis Clareburt, swimming men's 400m IM
A real chance to win New Zealand's first medal in the pool since Danyon Loader in 1996. Clareburt is ranked third in the world and has improved his time since a third place at the 2019 World Championships. His Oceania record of 4:09.87 is the fifth best in the world this year. Rio medallists Daiya Seto of Japan and American Chase Kalisz along with David Verraszto of Hungary probably stand in his way.
Paul Snow-Hansen and Daniel Willcox, Men's 470
Won a World Cup Series event in Genoa in 2019 so they have the goods to lead the field. Finished 10th in Rio.
Chris Harris and Jack Lopas, men's double sculls
Chinese duo of Liu Zhiyu and Zhang Liang are heavy favourites to win but a medal is still on offer. First major event for the pairing.
Hayden Wilde, men's triathlon
World ranking of 10 with a third at the 2019 Tokyo Olympic Qualification event so should be confident in the course. Also a fourth at the 2019 ITU event in Edmonton where he was just behind some big names in Jonathan Brownlee and Mario Mola. Could be his day.
Patrick Bevin, men's road time trial
Fourth at the World Championships in 2019 and eighth last year.
Anton Cooper, men's mountain biking
Ranked eighth in the world and earned a podium finish at a World Cup event last month so he's in form.
Alex Maloney and Molly Meech, 49er FX
The silver medallists from Rio haven't had an ideal lead-up being so far away from their competitors. Rio defending champions Martine Grael and Kahena Kunze return in Rio in a highly competitive field where any of the top eight could be in the medals.
Luuka Jones, K1 slalom
Silver medallist five years ago and has backed that up with a second at a World Cup event and bronze at the world championships in 2019.
Tier 5: Been there before but odds against them this time
Nick Willis, men's 1500m
Lydia Ko, women's golf
Natalie Rooney, women's trap
All three were medallists in Rio and can't be ruled out doing it again in Tokyo. Ko has proven this year she is back to her winning ways but golf is a big field so odds are against her. Rooney finished 20th at the World Championships on 2019 and returned to form with victory in the Oceania Championships the same year. Defending Olympic champion Catherine Skinner won't be there this time. Willis snuck into the 1500m event being one of the slowest to qualify. But he has a knack of performing at the Games with two medals.
Tier 6: In a crazy Covid world, who knows where they are tracking
Normally we have recent fixtures or World Championships to judge form but due to a certain pandemic that's not the case for Tokyo. So really who knows with these athletes.
Black Sticks men
Haven't played many games during Covid – just six defeats against Australia. Weren't tracking as medal chance before the pandemic after finishing eighth in the Pro League.
Black Sticks women
Same as the men in terms of poor lead-up to the event. Have only played six games against Australia post-Covid resulting in four draws and two defeats. Have strung together winning runs in recent years so a chance to peak at the tournament but without any consistent competition it's too hard to tell.
Max Brown and Kurtis Imrie, men's K2 1000m
Finished 15th at the 2019 World Championships and eighth at the World Cup event in Poznan the same year.
Teneale Hatton and Alicia Hoskin, women's K2 500m
First major event as a pair. Hard to know what to expect.
Women's quadruple sculls
Unsure what to expect from Loe, Eve Macfarlane, Georgia Nugent-O'Leary and Ruby Tew as they haven't raced together at a major competition.
Marcus Daniell and Michael Venus, men's doubles tennis
Both have won doubles titles with different partners but that's the beauty of doubles tennis at the Olympics - so many of the pairings haven't played together. A bit of a crapshoot.
Rowing men's eight
A good chance to qualify for the final. Might be their limit.
Stephen Jones and Brook Robertson, rowing men's pair
First time competing together in this boat at any major event - but have been teammates as part of the eight.
Micah Wilkinson and Erica Dawson, Nacra 17
Had to deal with an unfortunate lead-up after Dawson broke her leg in training. Back on the water just a matter of days before the Olympics.
Ainsley Thorpe and Nicole van der Kaay, women's triathlon
Ranked 34th and 42nd in the world respectively so not expected to be up with the front-runners, but who knows if they are able to get onto a leading bunch in the cycling and hold on for a medal.
Callum Gilbert, men's canoe K1 slalom
Made three semifinals on the 2019 ICF World Championship Tour and a best finish of fifth. Defending champion Joe Clarke won't be there but Rio medallists Peter Kauzer (Slovenia) and Jiří Prskavec (Czech Republic) will be along with fourth-placed Hannes Aigner.
Luuka Jones, women's canoe C1 slalom
The C1 female event makes its debut at the Games. A similar event to the K1, although a different paddle is used. Jones finished ninth at the most recent World Championships in 2019. Reigning world champion Andrea Herzog is the favourite.
Hamish Kerr, men's high jump
With a personal best of 2.31m achieved in February, that would have been enough for the finals in Rio and bronze in 2012.
Lewis Clareburt, swimming 200m IM
The 400m IM is his stronger event but a chance to make the final in the 200m and then see what he does from there.
Tier 7: Something crazy could happen
Well, well, well. Look who jumped up a few tiers last-minute. Before their unexpected victory against South Korea on Thursday night, they had never won a game at the Olympics and were ranked well down. But after beating the fancied Koreans 1-0 the Kiwis are suddenly a shot at nabbing at least a best-ranked third-placed spot and then try their luck in the knockout phase. Probably still too tall an order.
George Bennett, men's road race
Get in a breakaway and he's a chance. Meant to be a gruelling road race which could wilt the field a bit, and smaller teams provide the opportunity for successful attacks.
Dylan Schmidt, men's trampoline
Heads into the Olympics ranked eighth in the world. Made the final in Rio. Ninth at the 2019 World Championships but seems hard to jump head of Rio medallists Uladzislau Hancharou of Belarus and Chinese duo Dong Dong and Gao Lei with another Belarusian Ivan Litvinovich also a contender.
Ella Williams, women's surfing and Billy Stairmand, men's surfing
Both listed as 100-1 outsiders to win gold. Would need the size of the waves to work in their favour and judging to go their way. Seems unlikely though.
Triathlon mixed team event
The selectors have picked the four athletes with this event in mind. A crash on the bike by other teams or a strong showing from Hayden Wilde and maybe New Zealand could jump into the medals.
David Liti, weightlifting men's +109kg
Gold at the Commonwealth Games although well back in 16th at the 2019 World Championships. Defending champion Lasha Talakhadze of Georgia and Asian champion Ali Davoudi look to be the frontrunners.
Ryan Fox, men's golf
Certainly has the game to finish in the top three. Will be one of the longest drivers at the event. Form has been up and down on European Tour with a season-best of tied sixth in a strong field in Saudi Arabia.
Andrea Anacan, karate women's kata
Finished seventh at the 2018 World Championships and produced two more seventh placings on the Karate 1 Premier League last year. Has been listed as a 250-1 outsider to win gold.
Chloe Tipple, women's skeet
Took out silver at the Acapulco World Cup event in 2019 so maybe a chance of reaching the final. Was 13th at the Rio Games but just two shots from missing the final. Ranked 31st in the world.
Jesse Campbell (Diachello), equestrian eventing
The Prices are the leading candidates but Campbell and Diachello do have a podium finish at a four-star event. Most recently was 11th at the Kentucky Three-Day Event.
Tier 8: Maybe in Paris 2024
Sam Tanner, men's 1500m
Aged just 20, the world number 55 is still building his training programme and likely won't figure in the expected battle for bronze behind Timothy Cheruiyot (Kenya) and Jakob Ingebrigtsen (Norway). But the Paris Games call...
Maddison-Lee Wesche, women's shot put
Won the under-20 World Championships but a personal best of 18.32m puts the 22-year-old behind the pack in Tokyo.
Lauren Bruce, women's hammer throw
Should be one of the youngest in the field at 24. Ranked 10th in the world this year but has been consistently around three metres back from where the medals should be decided in Tokyo.
Jordan Parry, rowing men's single sculls
First Olympics and first major international event in the single sculls after replacing Mahe Drysdale. Ranked 11th by British bookmakers William Hill.
Kanah Andrews-Nahu, weightlifting women's −87 kg
Won bronze at the Buenos Aires 2018 Youth Olympic Games. A new weight class so hard to judge what the world standard is and where the 20-year-old sits.
Anton Down-Jenkins, men's 3m springboard diving
Placed 10th at the Diving World Cup qualifying event. 14th at the Commonwealth Games.
Maddie Davidson, women's trampoline
Fourth in her last World Cup in Italy bringing her world ranking to 12th going into Tokyo.
Rebecca Petch, women's BMX
A World Cup semifinalist twice last year and at the Baku World Championships in 2018, the 23-year-old will be competing at her first Games.
Zac Reid, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle
Erika Fairweather, 200m freestyle, 400m freestyle
Eve Thomas, 800m freestyle, 1500m freestyle
Hayley McIntosh 1500m freestyle
Ali Galyer 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke
4x200m freestyle relay team
All seven members of the New Zealand swimming team are making their Olympic debuts. Outside chance for Reid to make the final after he finished second in the 400m freestyle at the 2019 FINA World Cup event in Tokyo but his PB of 03:47.74 is probably not enough to match the likes of Aussies Elijah Winnington and Jack McLoughlin.
Tom Burns, men's -68kg taekwondo
A young talent but too much of an unknown to make an informed call.
Tier 9: Dark horses
Clockwise of Greenhill Z (actually, it's a grey horse), ridden by Uma O'Neill, Danny V ridden by Bruce Goodin and Cinca ridden by Daniel Meech. Hard to predict what to expect from the equestrian jumping team.
Tier 10: Don't expect a medal
Trying not to sound harsh here. The Olympics are really tough. Not everyone gets a medal and this is freely admitted by sports organisations when they talk about targets. But going by personal bests or the field they are up against, it's hard to see the following coming home with a medal. But hey, prove us wrong. We'd be very happy to be.
Too tough a group to even sneak a best third-placed spot into quarters. Go into tournament having played one game in last 500 days. Already lost opener to Australia.
Jacko Gill, men's shot put
Season-best of 21.55m ranks him 13th in the world this year behind a stacked field.
Julia Ratcliffe, women's hammer throw
Personal best of 73.55m in Hastings this year puts her around 17th in the world.
George Bennett, men's time trial
Best chance is in the road race.
Patrick Bevin, men's road race
Best chance is in the time trial.
Zane Robertson and Malcolm Hicks, men's marathon
Robertson is a bit of an unknown at the marathon after making his name in the shorter distances. Ran an impressive half marathon in Tokyo six years ago to cut two minutes off the New Zealand record but marathon PB of 2:08:19 stills leaves him outside the contenders. Hicks qualified after slashing nearly four minutes from his PB with 2:10:04 at the Seville Marathon last year. Some time off where the medals will be decided.
Quentin Rew, men's 50km walk
Personal best of 3:46:29 back in 2017 would place him seventh in the world based on official times recorded this year, which he has yet to do. Ranked 78th in the world.
Cameron McTaggart, weightlifting men's -81kg
Seventh at the Commonwealth Games. Has an Oceania record of 310kg in the event, which would have placed him 29th at the last World Championships.
Megan Signal, weightlifting women's −76 kg
Personal bests across snatch and clean and jerk doesn't put her amongst the medal contenders.
Camille Buscomb, women's 5000m and 10,000m
Finished 12th in the 10,000m at the World Champs in Doha two years ago but hasn't gone near that time since. Her best time this year would put her 91st in the world. Similar in the 5000m with her best time in 2021 coming in Oslo a few weeks back which would rank her 119th this year.
Mikhail Koudinov, men's all-around gymnastics
Placed 45th of 50 in Rio and didn't qualify for any apparatus finals. His speciality apparatus are the parallel bars and the high bar where he is ranked 9th and 19th in the world.
Tayler Reid, men's triathlon
Reid is ranked 51st in the world and has an Olympic individual qualification ranking of 56. Has performed well in the team relay event with bronze at the Commonwealth Games.