Ian Foster showed faith in Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's previous big-game NRL experience to hand him a debut off the bench against Ireland in the third test. Photosport
Ian Foster showed faith in Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's previous big-game NRL experience to hand him a debut off the bench against Ireland in the third test. Photosport
Changes are certain for Ian Foster's last roll of the dice this week. How many and how drastic are the only questions. Liam Napier assesses where those changes could come for the second test against the Springboks at Ellis Park.
Back three reshuffle
Jordie Barrett remains in doubt with anankle injury that forced him from the field in the second half of the 26-10 defeat at the heaving Mbombela Stadium. Barrett trained on Tuesday with his ankle strapped but didn't take part in the kicking session which suggests he is not 100 per cent.
Will Jordan also missed training on Tuesday with a minor stomach bug but the All Blacks project confidence he will recover in time for this weekend.
In 16 tests, Foster is yet to start Jordan in his favoured fullback role and after he was exposed by Springboks wing Makazole Mapimpi under high ball, there could be further hesitancy to play him there.
Jordan is, however, the fullback option that would cause the least disruption if Jordie Barrett can't prove his fitness. Foster could also switch Beauden Barrett to fullback. Injecting Stephen Perofeta for his test debut or shifting David Havili from second-five present less likely alternatives.
Jordan's possible shift from wing to fullback, depending on his recovery, could necessitate recalling Sevu Reece. Other than Braydon Ennor, who did not command a starting spot for the Crusaders, the All Blacks don't possess another specialist centre option in their squad while Jack Goodhue is injured.
The prospect of moving Rieko Ioane to the wing, therefore, appears unlikely. Leicester Fainga'anuku offers a powerful wild card, either from centre or the wing, but with Caleb Clarke locking down the No 11 jersey, Reece's ability to slot on the right edge makes more sense.
A potential back three featuring Jordan, Reece and Clarke would, however, be targeted by the Boks high ball barrage.
David Havili and Rieko Ioane's combination proved disjointed and could be revamped. Foster may have one big, bold play left. And there would be no bigger gamble than throwing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck in at second-five. It could only be remotely justified on the familiarity of having Blues team-mates Beauden Barrett and Ioane on either side.
Ian Foster showed faith in Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's previous big-game NRL experience to hand him a debut off the bench against Ireland in the third test. Photosport
Foster showed faith in Tuivasa-Sheck's previous big-game NRL experience to hand him a debut off the bench in the deciding third Irish test in Wellington, and the embattled coach is a noted believer in backing combinations.
Containing classy Springboks midfielders Damian de Allende and Lukhanyo Am would be a huge test for Tuivasa-Sheck's defensive abilities but, at this point, such a high-risk move is not out of the question.
The other big bold option could be switching Jordie Barrett, provided he sufficiently recovers from his ankle injury, to second-five to provide a much more direct midfield presence.
First five
Beauden Barrett is desperate to retain his position. Scans revealed no serious damage to his neck, despite the alarming fall late in last week's loss.
Foster has consistently backed Barrett as the All Blacks preferred No 10 since Richie Mo'unga remained at home for the birth of his second child last September. Mo'unga started the final test of last year in Paris but only after Barrett suffered a heavy concussion against Ireland the previous week.
Depending on the back three make up, Beauden Barrett is in the box seat to retain his starting role.
Having watched the All Blacks attack consistently fail to fire from the bench Mo'unga is, likewise, desperate for a starting chance to prove he is the man to unlock its potential.
Foster could opt to harness both playmakers by shifting Barrett to fullback but that previous experiment didn't exactly gel for the All Blacks.
Loose forwards
Foster is highly unlikely to alter Sam Cane or Ardie Savea's roles but a change should be made at blindside. Akira Ioane didn't provide the desired dominant ball carrying or cleanout presence last week which may lead to a promotion for Shannon Frizell.
Alternatively, the All Blacks could switch Scott Barrett to blindside where he was highly effective in the first test victory against Ireland at Eden Park that seems an eternity ago, and start Tupou Vaa'i alongside Sam Whitelock.
The All Blacks lineout was, however, one of few bright spots last week which could leave a reluctance to tinker with the second-row.
Front-row
The scrum struggled from the outset last week with Angus Ta'avao in particular on the receiving end of three infringements that handed the Springboks the ascendancy.
While the All Blacks weren't happy with the early interpretations, Foster believes the front-row performance got better as the test wore on. That would suggest last week's bench props, Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax, could be elevated to join Samisoni Taukei'aho who impressed in his second test start at hooker.
Crusaders rookie Fletcher Newell, called into the squad for South Africa after injuries to Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tuungafasi, should be in line for his test debut, too.
Reserves
After five changes last week the bench may undergo another major shake up. Dane Coles endured a forgettable cameo with his lineout throwing and ball control letting him down in the final quarter. That could see Codie Taylor re-join the fold after he was dropped from last week's squad. Newell could also be included, and Blues captain Dalton Papalii was a glaring absence in Mbombela.
Quinn Tupaea was used at centre off the bench and offered little impact there. Injecting Fainga'anuku would be a much more threatening option, though his inclusion could leave the All Blacks light on second-five options.
Betting tip
Record: 10/23 (-$8)
The 16-point loss in Mbombela – the All Blacks' worst defeat in 94 years in South Africa - put pay to my Springboks 1-12 tip last week. This week I fancy the challenge only amplifies for the All Blacks at Ellis Park so I fancy Boks to cover the -4.5 margin paying $1.85.
